Weber State vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Weber State

0010

James Madison

▸0045

Final

Bridgeforth Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WEBE	0	7	3	0	10
JMU	14	14	3	14	45

WEBETeam statsJMU

148Total yards458

84Pass145

64Rush313

10First downs23

3-143rd down7-13

3Turnovers2

27:33Possession32:27

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:48JMUJC Evans 5 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)10–45
• Q4 14:51JMUWayne Knight 59 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)10–38
• Q3 7:21JMUMorgan Suarez 38 Yd Field Goal 10–31
• Q3 11:03WEBESloan Calder 51 Yd Field Goal 10–28
• Q2 0:53WEBENoah Kjar 14 Yd pass from Jackson Gilkey (Sloan Calder Kick)7–28
• Q2 3:36JMULandon Ellis 14 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–28
• Q2 7:12JMUMatthew Sluka 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–21
• Q1 0:46JMUIsaiah Alston 20 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:25JMUAlonza Barnett III 11 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

JMU −27

Against the number

JMU covered

line JMU −27

What the numbers say

• WEBE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 33% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

JMU 100%50%WEBE 100%

Kickoff146 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

JMU (top)WEBE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JMU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

JMU −27

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WEBE 10 – 45 JMU

Leaders

Weber State

• PassJackson Gilkey 10/24, 84 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
• RushZach Hrbacek 12 CAR, 39 YDS
• RecMarcus Chretien 2 REC, 22 YDS

James Madison

• PassAlonza Barnett III 14/22, 130 YDS, 1 TD
• RushGeorge Pettaway 10 CAR, 99 YDS
• RecMichael Scott 4 REC, 38 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

14.5sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JMU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

JMU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3WJames Madison vs Bucknell38-3WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7

Fourth downs

16 calls

JMU gave up 1.9 points to the model on fourth down.WEBE 8/9 · JMU 4/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Weber State vs. James Madison?

Weber State 10, James Madison 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEBE

JMU

33%

Success rate

48%

-0.01

EPA / pass

0.04

-0.25

EPA / rush

0.43

34%

Early-down success

47%

41%

Pass success

37%

26%

Rush success

56%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

47%

Pass rate

41%

7.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

WEBE

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

JMU

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEBE		JMU
148	Total yards	458
84	Passing yards	145
64	Rushing yards	313
10	First downs	23
3-14	3rd down	7-13
0-1	4th down	1-3
10/26	Comp/Att	17/27
3.2	Yards per pass	5.4
2.1	Yards per rush	7.1
3	Turnovers	2
3-21	Penalties	6-75
27:33	Possession	32:27

Fourth downs

16 calls

WEBE

8/9 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

JMU

4/6 with the model

−1.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 5:40 JMU punt on 4th & 2 at WEBE 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEBE 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →JMU 7/15 scoring drives

WEBEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

JMUTD10 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

WEBEPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 12Q1

JMUTD10 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

WEBEDOWNS8 pl, 38 yds· own 19Q1

JMUTD10 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2

WEBEPUNT5 pl, 32 yds· own 9Q2

JMUTD3 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q2

WEBEPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 27Q2

JMUFUM1 pl, 3 yds· own 18Q2

WEBETD2 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q2

JMUEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q2

JMUDOWNS5 pl, 19 yds· own 19Q3

WEBEFG4 pl, 4 yds· opp 38Q3

JMUFG8 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q3

WEBEINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 36Q3

JMUINT2 pl, 18 yds· opp 48Q3

WEBEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 4Q3

JMUMISS7 pl, 16 yds· opp 45Q3

WEBEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 32Q3

JMUTD3 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3

WEBEPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 17Q4

JMUDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 35Q4

WEBEINT10 pl, 31 yds· own 28Q4

JMUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 46Q4

WEBEINT2 pl, 5 yds· own 8Q4

JMUTD1 pl, 5 yds· opp 5Q4

WEBEPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 19Q4

JMUEND4 pl, 27 yds· own 27Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:48JMUJC Evans 5 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)10–45
• Q4 14:51JMUWayne Knight 59 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)10–38
• Q3 7:21JMUMorgan Suarez 38 Yd Field Goal 10–31
• Q3 11:03WEBESloan Calder 51 Yd Field Goal 10–28
• Q2 0:53WEBENoah Kjar 14 Yd pass from Jackson Gilkey (Sloan Calder Kick)7–28
• Q2 3:36JMULandon Ellis 14 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–28
• Q2 7:12JMUMatthew Sluka 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–21
• Q1 0:46JMUIsaiah Alston 20 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:25JMUAlonza Barnett III 11 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →