Washington vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 7:14WASHDecker DeGraaf 24 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)48–14
- Q4 11:19UCLAJamir Benjamin 13 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)41–14
- Q4 12:53WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)41–7
- Q3 2:53UCLAMikey Matthews 37 Yd pass from Luke Duncan (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)34–7
- Q3 5:24WASHDezmen Roebuck 18 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)34–0
- Q3 10:38WASHDemond Williams Jr. 11 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)27–0
- Q2 1:44WASHAlex McLaughlin 59 Yd Fumble Return (Grady Gross Kick)20–0
- Q2 5:46WASHGrady Gross 22 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 10:56WASHDemond Williams Jr. 25 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–0
- Q1 1:10WASHGrady Gross 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 17/26, 213 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAdam Mohammed 21 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecDezmen Roebuck 7 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLuke Duncan 5/11, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Berger 6 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecMikey Matthews 6 REC, 38 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:56WASH +10%
Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. rush middle for 25 yards gain to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:10WASH +6%
#95 G.Gross field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. UCLA?
Washington 48, UCLA 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| WASH | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 207 |
| 214 | Passing yards | 150 |
| 212 | Rushing yards | 57 |
| 25 | First downs | 10 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 18/28 | Comp/Att | 21/37 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 34:27 | Possession | 25:33 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:44 UCLA go for it on 4th & 14 at WASH 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:14WASHDecker DeGraaf 24 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)48–14
- Q4 11:19UCLAJamir Benjamin 13 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)41–14
- Q4 12:53WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)41–7
- Q3 2:53UCLAMikey Matthews 37 Yd pass from Luke Duncan (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)34–7
- Q3 5:24WASHDezmen Roebuck 18 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)34–0
- Q3 10:38WASHDemond Williams Jr. 11 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)27–0
- Q2 1:44WASHAlex McLaughlin 59 Yd Fumble Return (Grady Gross Kick)20–0
- Q2 5:46WASHGrady Gross 22 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 10:56WASHDemond Williams Jr. 25 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–0
- Q1 1:10WASHGrady Gross 36 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1361, WASH Elo 1754 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +13.3 (20% to win) — 2.8 points clear of WASH's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUCLA leads 42–34–2 · Washington has won 2 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| WASH | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.7 (#11) | CORE overall | -6.4 (#84) |
| +13 / -9 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 1.90 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 3.43 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →