Washington
7-3·Big Ten· Elo 1754
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 3 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 48 |
| UCLA | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCLA Elo 1361, WASH Elo 1754) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +13.3 (16% to win) — 2.8 points of value on WASH versus the market line of +10.5.
WASH up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Washington 48, UCLA 14.
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(04:04) Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete deep middle to #2 T.Mokiao-Atimalala caught at WASH43, for 24 yards to the WASH39 (#7 E.Prysock), 1ST DOWN. #2 R.Clark injured on the play
(02:58) Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short middle to #7 M.Matthews caught at WASH30, for 37 yards to the WASH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:53, 1ST DOWN #94 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Peterman, LS: #50 S.Abdul-Wahab)
(06:39) Shotgun #2 D.Williams Jr. pass complete deep left to #8 C.Lawson caught at UCLA08, for 42 yards to the UCLA08 (#4 K.Lawrence), 1ST DOWN
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