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Washington State vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 1, 11:30 PM
Reser StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ORST | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORST 1248
WSU 1438
Projected spread
ORST +5.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
65% to win
Market spread
ORST +3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
ORST · market 39%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORST Elo 1248, WSU Elo 1438) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORST +5.2 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ORST (top)WSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
WSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedORST
Offense
0.13
PPA / play
0.0542%
Success rate
42%1.12
Explosiveness
1.053.93
Pts / opportunity
2.8968%
Power success
77%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.1840%
Success rate allowed
38%1.09
Explosiveness allowed
1.4414%
Havoc rate
17%18%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- WSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ORST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ORST.
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge WSU.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. ORST rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge WSU.
Drive-by-drive
WSU 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 2/13 scoring drives
WSUINT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
ORSTPUNT11 pl, 37 yds· own 17Q1
WSUPUNT8 pl, 47 yds· own 8Q1
ORSTPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 10Q1
WSUPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 14Q2
WSUINT6 pl, 38 yds· own 37Q2
ORSTFG8 pl, 39 yds· own 43Q2
WSUTD7 pl, 35 yds· opp 25Q2
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2
WSUEND1 pl, -9 yds· own 38Q2
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 16Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 21Q3
ORSTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 40Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 18Q3
ORSTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 33Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 10Q3
ORSTPUNT3 pl, -17 yds· own 31Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 45Q3
ORSTPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 15Q3
WSUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 17Q4
ORSTTD4 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q4
WSUDOWNS7 pl, 32 yds· own 35Q4
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q4
WSUDOWNS5 pl, 28 yds· opp 43Q4
ORSTEND7 pl, -10 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
WSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Oregon State?
Washington State 7, Oregon State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had WSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.