Washington State vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsORST
- Q4 9:52ORSTAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:44WSUKirby Vorhees 3 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)7–3
- Q2 2:52ORSTCaleb Ojeda 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassZevi Eckhaus 13/24, 146 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKirby Vorhees 10 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoshua Meredith 4 REC, 44 YDS
- PassGabarri Johnson 10/15, 33 YDS
- RushAnthony Hankerson 25 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTaz Reddicks 2 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:41WSU +55%
Shotgun #9 K.Vorhees rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WSU47 (#14 K.Shaw; #18 K.Wallin)
- Q4 9:52ORST +41%
Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:05ORST +33%
PENALTY OSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 10 yards from OSU20 to OSU10. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:59ORST +26%
#38 A.Winsor punt 50 yards to the WSU10 #0 T.Freeman return 47 yards to the OSU43 (#47 T.Blake; #17 S.Thomas)
- Q4 3:52WSU +20%
Shotgun #3 M.Woods rush middle for 12 yards gain to the OSU31 (#17 S.Thomas), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:04WSU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Woods rush left for 10 yards gain to the OSU37 (#0 K.Singleton; #95 T.Hill) PENALTY WSU Holding (#0 T.Freeman) 10 yards from OSU47 to WSU43. NO…
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Oregon State?
Washington State 7, Oregon State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | Total yards | 184 |
| 146 | Passing yards | 60 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 124 |
| 16 | First downs | 15 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 12/18 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 3.3 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-90 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 28:48 | Possession | 31:12 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:03 ORST punt on 4th & 1 at ORST 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:52ORSTAnthony Hankerson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:44WSUKirby Vorhees 3 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)7–3
- Q2 2:52ORSTCaleb Ojeda 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1248, WSU Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +5.2 (37% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington State leads 56–44–3 · 42% have been one-possession games
| WSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#40) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#106) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | -9 / +6 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 1.38 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →