DATCU StadiumClosing line: UNT -6.5 · UNT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| UNT | 14 | 28 | 10 | 7 | 59 |
Team stats
WSUthis game · better side highlightedUNT
275
Total yards
410211
Passing yards
24764
Rushing yards
16317
First downs
248-14 · 57%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNT 1409
WSU 1555
Projected spread
UNT +3.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
60% to win
Market spread
UNT -6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WSU
9.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
40%
UNT · market 69%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNT Elo 1409, WSU Elo 1555) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNT +3.4 (40% to win) — 9.9 points of value on WSU versus the market line of -6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UNT (top)WSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge UNT.
- UNT rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. WSU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge UNT.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UNT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UNT.
Drive-by-drive
WSU 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →UNT 9/12 scoring drives
UNTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WSUINT5 pl, 21 yds· own 27Q1
UNTTD1 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UNT up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 72 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
UNT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. North Texas?
Washington State 10, North Texas 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had WSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.