Washington State vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsUNT
- Q4 1:57WSUZevi Eckhaus 2 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)10–59
- Q4 8:54UNTCaleb Hawkins 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)3–59
- Q3 2:30UNTEthan Day 2 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–52
- Q3 9:46UNTKali Nguma 26 Yd Field Goal 3–45
- Q2 0:54UNTJayden Becks 14 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)3–42
- Q2 1:39UNTLandon Sides 12 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–35
- Q2 3:24UNTTre Williams III 6 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–28
- Q2 7:07UNTBrandon Young Jr. 2 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:27WSUJack Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:33UNTJayden Becks 12 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:33UNTMakenzie McGill II 7 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJaxon Potter 16/23, 139 YDS, 3 INT
- RushKirby Vorhees 6 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecCarter Pabst 3 REC, 65 YDS
- PassDrew Mestemaker 24/29, 211 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMakenzie McGill 9 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMiles Coleman 4 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 72 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. North Texas?
Washington State 10, North Texas 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 275 | Total yards | 410 |
| 211 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 17 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 23/35 | Comp/Att | 29/34 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-54 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 31:26 | Possession | 28:34 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:46 UNT field goal on 4th & 2 at WSU 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57WSUZevi Eckhaus 2 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)10–59
- Q4 8:54UNTCaleb Hawkins 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)3–59
- Q3 2:30UNTEthan Day 2 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–52
- Q3 9:46UNTKali Nguma 26 Yd Field Goal 3–45
- Q2 0:54UNTJayden Becks 14 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)3–42
- Q2 1:39UNTLandon Sides 12 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–35
- Q2 3:24UNTTre Williams III 6 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–28
- Q2 7:07UNTBrandon Young Jr. 2 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:27WSUJack Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:33UNTJayden Becks 12 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:33UNTMakenzie McGill II 7 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1409, WSU Elo 1555 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT +3.4 (42% to win) — 9.9 points clear of WSU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WSU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#40) | CORE overall | +11.9 (#34) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | +18 / +6 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 1.86 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →