Wake Forest vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsFSU
- Q4 6:49WAKEMicah Mays Jr. 6 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)7–42
- Q4 11:51FSUDuce Robinson 11 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–42
- Q4 14:54FSURandy Pittman Jr. 7 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–35
- Q3 1:45FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–28
- Q3 4:59FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–21
- Q2 0:57FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 10 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q2 13:44FSUTommy Castellanos 6 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRobby Ashford 12/21, 93 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRobby Ashford 12 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecMicah Mays Jr. 5 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- PassThomas Castellanos 12/16, 271 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSamuel Singleton Jr. 14 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDuce Robinson 5 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:44FSU +17%
#1 T.Castellanos rush right for 6 yards gain to the WFU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:57FSU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WFU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Florida State?
Wake Forest 7, Florida State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
| WAKE | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 247 | Total yards | 421 |
| 162 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 85 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 12/17 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 15.9 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-93 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 34:24 | Possession | 25:36 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:49 WAKE punt on 4th & 5 at FSU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:49WAKEMicah Mays Jr. 6 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)7–42
- Q4 11:51FSUDuce Robinson 11 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–42
- Q4 14:54FSURandy Pittman Jr. 7 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–35
- Q3 1:45FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–28
- Q3 4:59FSUGavin Sawchuk 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–21
- Q2 0:57FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 10 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q2 13:44FSUTommy Castellanos 6 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1542, WAKE Elo 1471 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -5.2 (65% to win) — 7.3 points clear of WAKE's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida State leads 32–9–1 · Florida State has won 2 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#42) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#29) |
| -4 / -13 | offense / defense | +13 / -1 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →