Doak Campbell StadiumConference gameClosing line: FSU -12.5 · FSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| FSU | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 42 |
Team stats
WAKEthis game · better side highlightedFSU
247
Total yards
421162
Passing yards
27185
Rushing yards
15019
First downs
186-16 · 38%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FSU 1542
WAKE 1471
Projected spread
FSU -5.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
FSU
65% to win
Market spread
FSU -12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WAKE
7.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
FSU · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FSU Elo 1542, WAKE Elo 1471) plus home-field advantage. That projects FSU -5.2 (65% to win) — 7.3 points of value on WAKE versus the market line of -12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FSU (top)WAKE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge FSU.
- FSU pass offense (0.32 PPA) vs. WAKE pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge FSU.
- WAKE rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. FSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge WAKE.
Drive-by-drive
WAKE 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →FSU 6/11 scoring drives
WAKEPUNT7 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q1
FSUPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q1
WAKEPUNT11 pl, 39 yds· own 18Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
FSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Florida State?
Wake Forest 7, Florida State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.