Villanova vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Villanova

06

Penn State2-0

▸0052

Final

Beaver Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
VILL	0	0	0	6	6
PSU	7	14	10	21	52

VILLTeam statsPSU

179Total yards465

96Pass228

83Rush237

11First downs28

6-173rd down5-11

2Turnovers1

31:44Possession28:16

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00VILLBrandon Binkowski 8 Yd pass from Tanner Maddocks 6–52
• Q4 6:24PSUJahmir Joseph 49 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)0–52
• Q4 7:05PSUJoey Schlaffer 19 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)0–45
• Q4 10:43PSUKaytron Allen 18 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–38
• Q3 3:36PSUNicholas Singleton 3 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–31
• Q3 10:02PSURyan Barker 42 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 0:32PSUTrebor Pena 23 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Drew Allar Pass to Trebor Pena for Two-Point Conversion)0–21
• Q2 6:39PSURyan Barker 28 Yd Field Goal 0–13
• Q2 14:22PSURyan Barker 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 8:48PSUNicholas Singleton 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

PSU −47

Against the number

VILL covered

line PSU −47

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

PSU 100%50%VILL 100%

Kickoff110 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

PSU (top)VILL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

PSU −47

Closing total

57.0

Model line

—

Actual result

VILL 6 – 52 PSU

Leaders

Villanova

• PassTanner Maddocks 6/12, 69 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushDavid Avit 10 CAR, 53 YDS
• RecBraden Reed 2 REC, 41 YDS

Penn State

• PassDrew Allar 16/29, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushKaytron Allen 10 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
• RecLuke Reynolds 4 REC, 73 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PSU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

PSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WGeorgia Southern vs The Citadel34-0WButler vs Taylor41-13WTemple vs Norfolk State41-11WLouisiana vs UAB41-21WLamar vs Lincoln (CA)38-0

Fourth downs

12 calls

PSU gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.VILL 6/6 · PSU 2/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Villanova vs. Penn State?

Villanova 6, Penn State 52.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

VILL

PSU

34%

Success rate

54%

-0.14

EPA / pass

0.09

-0.29

EPA / rush

0.46

29%

Early-down success

55%

36%

Pass success

48%

32%

Rush success

59%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

36%

Stuffed rush rate

7%

50%

Pass rate

42%

6.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.0

VILL

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

44 scrimmage snaps

PSU

5.0 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

VILL		PSU
179	Total yards	465
96	Passing yards	228
83	Rushing yards	237
11	First downs	28
6-17	3rd down	5-11
2-2	4th down	1-1
13/27	Comp/Att	17/31
3.6	Yards per pass	7.4
2.3	Yards per rush	6.2
2	Turnovers	1
4-29	Penalties	5-25
31:44	Possession	28:16

Fourth downs

12 calls

VILL

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

PSU

2/4 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 10:02 PSU field goal on 4th & 4 at VILL 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

VILL 2/9 scoring drives← own end zone →PSU 6/8 scoring drives

PSUTD12 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

VILLPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 19Q1

PSUPUNT6 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q1

VILLPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 8Q1

PSUFG4 pl, 4 yds· opp 32Q2

VILLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 13Q3

PSUFG7 pl, 23 yds· opp 48Q3

VILLINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

PSUINT3 pl, 12 yds· opp 23Q3

VILLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 17Q3

PSUTD9 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3

VILLPUNT8 pl, 16 yds· own 30Q3

PSUTD7 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q4

VILLPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 1Q4

PSUTD4 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q4

VILLTD2 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q4

VILLEND16 pl, 75 yds· own 1Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00VILLBrandon Binkowski 8 Yd pass from Tanner Maddocks 6–52
• Q4 6:24PSUJahmir Joseph 49 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)0–52
• Q4 7:05PSUJoey Schlaffer 19 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)0–45
• Q4 10:43PSUKaytron Allen 18 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–38
• Q3 3:36PSUNicholas Singleton 3 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–31
• Q3 10:02PSURyan Barker 42 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 0:32PSUTrebor Pena 23 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Drew Allar Pass to Trebor Pena for Two-Point Conversion)0–21
• Q2 6:39PSURyan Barker 28 Yd Field Goal 0–13
• Q2 14:22PSURyan Barker 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 8:48PSUNicholas Singleton 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →