UTEP vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsUSU
- Q4 13:48UTEPAshten Emory 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–28
- Q3 8:35USUBryson Barnes 12 Yd Run (Anthony Garcia Run for Two-Point Conversion)10–28
- Q2 0:02UTEPCarlos Arrelola 42 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 1:56USUBroc Lane 52 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–20
- Q2 8:36USUTanner Rinker 28 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q1 0:18USUMiles Davis 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:30UTEPKenny Odom 34 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Carlos Arrelola Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:48USUTanner Rinker 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassMalachi Nelson 22/34, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKam Thomas 16 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecKenny Odom 9 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryson Barnes 19/28, 233 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMiles Davis 12 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMiles Davis 6 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:18USU +20%
Miles Davis 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
- Q1 4:30UTEP +17%
Kenny Odom 34 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Carlos Arrelola Kick)
- Q3 8:35USU +10%
Bryson Barnes 12 Yd Run (Anthony Garcia Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 8:36USU +8%
Tanner Rinker 28 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 9:48USU +6%
Tanner Rinker 49 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 11:23UTEP +6%
UTEP Penalty, delay of game (Udoka Ezeani) to the USU 46
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Utah State?
UTEP 16, Utah State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
| UTEP | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 284 | Total yards | 360 |
| 181 | Passing yards | 233 |
| 103 | Rushing yards | 127 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/37 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-63 | Penalties | 11-73 |
| 29:23 | Possession | 30:37 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:54 USU punt on 4th & 2 at USU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:48UTEPAshten Emory 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–28
- Q3 8:35USUBryson Barnes 12 Yd Run (Anthony Garcia Run for Two-Point Conversion)10–28
- Q2 0:02UTEPCarlos Arrelola 42 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 1:56USUBroc Lane 52 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–20
- Q2 8:36USUTanner Rinker 28 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q1 0:18USUMiles Davis 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:30UTEPKenny Odom 34 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Carlos Arrelola Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:48USUTanner Rinker 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1408, UTEP Elo 1240 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -9.1 (74% to win) — 4.6 points clear of USU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.7 (#131) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#77) |
| -26 / +1 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 1.32 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →