Utah vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 6:29UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)43–10
- Q4 10:05UTAHDallen Bentley 2 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)36–10
- Q3 2:50UTAHDevon Dampier 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)30–10
- Q3 12:38UCLAMateen Bhaghani 46 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q2 0:00UTAHDillon Curtis 54 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q2 6:46UCLAAnthony Woods 19 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)20–7
- Q2 12:44UTAHLander Barton 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)20–0
- Q1 1:27UTAHSmith Snowden 8 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)13–0
- Q1 10:49UTAHWayshawn Parker 13 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTAH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.9 vs 3rd & 2.8
- PassDevon Dampier 21/25, 206 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDevon Dampier 16 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSmith Snowden 6 REC, 51 YDS
- PassNico Iamaleava 11/22, 136 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushNico Iamaleava 13 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecAnthony Woods 3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:27UTAH +16%
Smith Snowden 8 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- Q1 10:49UTAH +15%
Wayshawn Parker 13 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT failed)
- Q2 6:46UCLA +10%
Anthony Woods 19 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
- Q2 12:44UTAH +10%
Lander Barton 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. UCLA?
Utah 43, UCLA 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTAH | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 492 | Total yards | 220 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 286 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 30 | First downs | 14 |
| 14-16 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 21/26 | Comp/Att | 11/22 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 37:28 | Possession | 22:32 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:06 UCLA punt on 4th & 2 at UCLA 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:29UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)43–10
- Q4 10:05UTAHDallen Bentley 2 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)36–10
- Q3 2:50UTAHDevon Dampier 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)30–10
- Q3 12:38UCLAMateen Bhaghani 46 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q2 0:00UTAHDillon Curtis 54 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q2 6:46UCLAAnthony Woods 19 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)20–7
- Q2 12:44UTAHLander Barton 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)20–0
- Q1 1:27UTAHSmith Snowden 8 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)13–0
- Q1 10:49UTAHWayshawn Parker 13 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1492, UTAH Elo 1542 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -0.4 (52% to win) — 6.9 points clear of UCLA's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUCLA leads 12–10 · Utah has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| UTAH | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#7) | CORE overall | -6.4 (#84) |
| +19 / -10 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 3.52 | points / drive | 1.90 |
| 1.62 | allowed / drive | 3.43 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →