← All games
Utah vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 3:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 13 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| UCLA | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UCLA 1492
UTAH 1542
Projected spread
UCLA -0.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
UCLA
51% to win
Market spread
UCLA +6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UCLA
6.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
51%
UCLA · market 36%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCLA Elo 1492, UTAH Elo 1542) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -0.4 (51% to win) — 6.9 points of value on UCLA versus the market line of +6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UCLA (top)UTAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UCLA 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UTAH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUCLA
Offense
0.36
PPA / play
0.1249%
Success rate
42%1.27
Explosiveness
1.175.01
Pts / opportunity
2.9882%
Power success
65%Defense
0.07
PPA allowed / play
0.2538%
Success rate allowed
50%1.34
Explosiveness allowed
1.1217%
Havoc rate
12%20%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- UTAH rush offense (0.35 PPA) vs. UCLA rush defense (0.23 allowed) — edge UTAH.
- UCLA pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UTAH pass defense (0.01 allowed) — edge UCLA.
- UTAH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. UCLA pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge UTAH.
Drive-by-drive
UTAH 6/9 scoring drives← own end zone →UCLA 2/8 scoring drives
UTAHTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
UCLADOWNS10 pl, 37 yds· own 23Q1
UTAHTD10 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
UCLAPUNT3 pl, -14 yds· own 25Q1
UTAHTD5 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2
UCLATD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
UTAHPUNT8 pl, 48 yds· own 4Q2
UCLAPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 6Q2
UTAHFG9 pl, 34 yds· own 30Q2
UCLAFG7 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q3
UTAHTD21 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
UCLAPUNT7 pl, 13 yds· own 22Q3
UTAHTD10 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q4
UCLAINT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q4
UTAHTD4 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q4
UCLAPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4
UTAHUncateg7 pl, 37 yds· own 27Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UTAH up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
98%
UTAH went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. UCLA?
Utah 43, UCLA 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had UCLA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.