| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 7 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 35 |
| VAN | 7 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 55 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (VAN Elo 1741, USU Elo 1442) plus home-field advantage. That projects VAN -14.4 (86% to win) — 9.1 points of value on USU versus the market line of -23.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = USU ahead, below = VAN ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
VAN up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah State 35, Vanderbilt 55.
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had VAN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 53 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
Diego Pavia pass intercepted, touchback. Noah Avinger return for no gain
Jamezell Lassiter run for 48 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST down
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