UTEP
0-1·Mountain West· Elo 1227
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT M | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| UTEP | 7 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 42 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UT M ahead, below = UTEP ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
UTEP up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UT Martin 17, UTEP 42.
No — the model picked UT M, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UT M pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Hahsaun Wilson run for 94 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola PAT BLOCKED)
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 74 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)
Skyler Locklear run for 63 yds to the UTM 15 for a 1ST down
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