UT Martin vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

UT Martin

07

Oklahoma State

▸0027

Final

Boone Pickens Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
UT M	7	0	0	0	7
OKST	14	3	3	7	27

UT MTeam statsOKST

225Total yards359

109Pass232

116Rush127

13First downs20

6-153rd down10-18

1Turnovers0

28:39Possession31:21

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:36OKSTSesi Vailahi 9 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)7–27
• Q3 5:12OKSTLogan Ward 39 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q2 2:43OKSTLogan Ward 42 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q1 2:15UT MJohn Gentry 39 Yd pass from Bryce Bailey (Cade Hechter Kick)7–14
• Q1 3:57OKSTGavin Freeman 10 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Logan Ward Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:20OKSTHauss Hejny 6 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

OKST −26

Against the number

UT M covered

line OKST −26

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UT M aheadOKST ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UT M ahead, below = OKST ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

OKST −26

Closing total

56.5

Model line

—

Actual result

UT M 7 – 27 OKST

Leaders

UT Martin

• PassJase Bauer 9/16, 70 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJohn Gentry 16 CAR, 51 YDS
• RecJohn Gentry 2 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD

Oklahoma State

• PassZane Flores 13/20, 136 YDS
• RushKalib Hicks 21 CAR, 56 YDS
• RecTerrill Davis 2 REC, 75 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.26

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

OKST up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

96%

OKST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WNew Mexico State vs Western Illinois58-21WBaylor vs Long Island University30-7WFlorida vs Tennessee29-16WSan Diego vs Dayton40-25WKentucky vs Florida33-14

Fourth downs

16 calls

OKST gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.UT M 5/7 · OKST 5/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of UT Martin vs. Oklahoma State?

UT Martin 7, Oklahoma State 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (OKST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

UT M

OKST

34%

Success rate

39%

0.06

EPA / pass

0.40

0.04

EPA / rush

0.02

32%

Early-down success

32%

32%

Pass success

47%

35%

Rush success

32%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

27%

39%

Pass rate

45%

7.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.4

UT M

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

OKST

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

UT M		OKST
225	Total yards	359
109	Passing yards	232
116	Rushing yards	127
13	First downs	20
6-15	3rd down	10-18
0-0	4th down	1-1
10/17	Comp/Att	18/30
6.4	Yards per pass	7.7
3.1	Yards per rush	3.0
1	Turnovers	0
7-50	Penalties	5-55
28:39	Possession	31:21

Fourth downs

16 calls

UT M

5/7 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

OKST

5/7 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 8:44 OKST punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

UT M 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →OKST 5/11 scoring drives

OKSTTD10 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1

UT MUncateg7 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1

OKSTTD9 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q1

UT MTD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

OKSTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 14Q1

UT MPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 30Q1

OKSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q2

UT MPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 8Q2

OKSTPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· own 42Q2

UT MPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 15Q2

OKSTFG13 pl, 43 yds· own 32Q2

UT MPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2

OKSTEND4 pl, 12 yds· own 13Q2

UT MPUNT9 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q3

OKSTFG9 pl, 58 yds· own 20Q3

UT MINT12 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q3

OKSTPUNT7 pl, 21 yds· own 8Q4

UT MPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 22Q4

OKSTTD12 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q4

UT MPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4

OKSTPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 30Q4

UT MUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 14Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:36OKSTSesi Vailahi 9 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)7–27
• Q3 5:12OKSTLogan Ward 39 Yd Field Goal 7–20
• Q2 2:43OKSTLogan Ward 42 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q1 2:15UT MJohn Gentry 39 Yd pass from Bryce Bailey (Cade Hechter Kick)7–14
• Q1 3:57OKSTGavin Freeman 10 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Logan Ward Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:20OKSTHauss Hejny 6 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →