| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| SHSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SHSU Elo 1411, UNLV Elo 1619) on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +8.3 (27% to win) — 2.2 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of +10.5.
Pick: UNLV · 5 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
UNLV up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UNLV 38, Sam Houston 21.
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Tim Burns Jr. 59 Yd pass from Mabrey Mettauer (Mabrey Mettauer Pass to Qua'Vez Humphreys for Two-Point Conversion)
Landan Brown 53 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Malik Phillips
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