UNLV vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsSHSU
- Q4 5:01SHSUTim Burns Jr. 59 Yd pass from Mabrey Mettauer (Mabrey Mettauer Pass to Qua'Vez Humphreys for Two-Point Conversion)38–21
- Q4 7:05UNLVAnthony Colandrea 13 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)38–13
- Q4 14:15SHSULandan Brown 53 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q3 11:22UNLVJai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)31–7
- Q2 7:15UNLVAamaris Brown 52 Yd Interception Return (Ramon Villela Kick)24–7
- Q2 9:41UNLVRamon Villela 29 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 0:32UNLVDeAngelo Irvin Jr. 3 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:42SHSUHunter Watson 6 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:19UNLVJaden Bradley 43 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNLV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassAnthony Colandrea 19/23, 249 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJai'Den Thomas 9 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Bradley 6 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHunter Watson 11/22, 101 YDS
- RushLandan Brown 10 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTim Burns Jr. 1 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:32UNLV +14%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
- Q1 8:42SHSU +14%
Hunter Watson run for 6 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)
- Q1 12:19UNLV +13%
Jaden Bradley 43 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)
- Q2 9:41UNLV +7%
R. Villela 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 7:15UNLV +7%
Aamaris Brown 52 Yd Interception Return (Ramon Villela Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Sam Houston?
UNLV 38, Sam Houston 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| UNLV | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 404 | Total yards | 332 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 187 |
| 155 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-9 | 3rd down | 1-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 19/23 | Comp/Att | 19/35 |
| 10.8 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-92 | Penalties | 5-48 |
| 29:42 | Possession | 30:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:38 UNLV punt on 4th & 1 at UNLV 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:01SHSUTim Burns Jr. 59 Yd pass from Mabrey Mettauer (Mabrey Mettauer Pass to Qua'Vez Humphreys for Two-Point Conversion)38–21
- Q4 7:05UNLVAnthony Colandrea 13 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)38–13
- Q4 14:15SHSULandan Brown 53 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q3 11:22UNLVJai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)31–7
- Q2 7:15UNLVAamaris Brown 52 Yd Interception Return (Ramon Villela Kick)24–7
- Q2 9:41UNLVRamon Villela 29 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 0:32UNLVDeAngelo Irvin Jr. 3 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:42SHSUHunter Watson 6 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:19UNLVJaden Bradley 43 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1411, UNLV Elo 1619 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +8.3 (30% to win) — 2.2 points clear of SHSU's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNLV | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#69) | CORE overall | -30.3 (#134) |
| +10 / +12 | offense / defense | -15 / +15 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →