UNLV vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 4:45UNLVAnthony Colandrea 2 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–17
- Q4 10:49OHIODavid Dellenbach 45 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q3 7:33UNLVRamon Villela 50 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q3 11:04OHIOSieh Bangura 23 Yd Run (Parker Navarro Pass to Chase Hendricks for Two-Point Conversion)0–14
- Q2 10:02OHIOParker Navarro 5 Yd Run (David Dellenbach PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassAnthony Colandrea 19/30, 184 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJai'Den Thomas 11 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecJaden Bradley 4 REC, 62 YDS
- PassParker Navarro 11/15, 143 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSieh Bangura 19 CAR, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Hendricks 4 REC, 87 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Ohio?
UNLV 10, Ohio 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 281 | Total yards | 350 |
| 184 | Passing yards | 143 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 207 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 11/15 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 28:00 | Possession | 32:00 |
- Q4 4:45UNLVAnthony Colandrea 2 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–17
- Q4 10:49OHIODavid Dellenbach 45 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q3 7:33UNLVRamon Villela 50 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q3 11:04OHIOSieh Bangura 23 Yd Run (Parker Navarro Pass to Chase Hendricks for Two-Point Conversion)0–14
- Q2 10:02OHIOParker Navarro 5 Yd Run (David Dellenbach PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1562, UNLV Elo 1644 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects OHIO +3.3 (42% to win) — 3.2 points clear of OHIO's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNLV | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#69) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#66) |
| +10 / +12 | offense / defense | +1 / +2 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →