UNLV
Mountain West· Elo 1644
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| OHIO | 0 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OHIO Elo 1562, UNLV Elo 1644) on a neutral field. That projects OHIO +3.3 (40% to win) — 3.2 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of +6.5.
OHIO up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UNLV 10, Ohio 17.
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UNLV pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass intercepted by #0 L.Welch at UNLV03, End Of Play
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass intercepted by #2 D.Walker at OHIO02, End Of Play
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Ohio rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UNLV26 fumbled by Ohio at UNLV24 recovered by UNLV #8 M.McDuffie at UNLV26, End Of Play
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