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UL Monroe vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 4, 7:30 PM
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| NU | 7 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NU 1411
ULM 1168
Projected spread
NU -12.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
NU
82% to win
Market spread
NU -13
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
82%
NU · market 79%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NU Elo 1411, ULM Elo 1168) plus home-field advantage. That projects NU -12.1 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NU (top)ULM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ULM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNU
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1536%
Success rate
43%1.41
Explosiveness
1.183.19
Pts / opportunity
3.2178%
Power success
76%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.1741%
Success rate allowed
45%1.36
Explosiveness allowed
1.1514%
Havoc rate
15%18%
Stuff rate
15%Key matchups · Pro
- ULM rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
- NU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ULM pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ULM.
- NU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. ULM rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge NU.
Drive-by-drive
ULM 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →NU 7/9 scoring drives
ULMTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NUTD13 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1
ULMMISS7 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1
NUTD8 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
ULMDOWNS8 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q2
NUFG14 pl, 62 yds· own 22Q2
ULMPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
NUEND8 pl, 36 yds· own 13Q2
NUTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3
ULMPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q3
NUTD6 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q3
ULMPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q3
NUTD9 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3
ULMPUNT5 pl, 2 yds· own 17Q3
NUFG7 pl, 30 yds· opp 45Q4
ULMPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q4
NUPUNT6 pl, 31 yds· own 30Q4
ULMUncateg9 pl, 47 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
NU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Northwestern?
UL Monroe 7, Northwestern 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.