UCLA
3-6·Big Ten· Elo 1381
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| OSU | 10 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 48 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 2125, UCLA Elo 1381) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -32.2 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
OSU up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCLA 10, Ohio State 48.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Shotgun #32 I.West rush middle for 38 yards gain to the UCLA43 (#21 C.Martin), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #12 L.Duncan pass complete short left to #1 R.Flores Jr. caught at UCLA39, for 51 yards to the OSU19 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Kwazi Gilmer 18 Yd pass from Luke Duncan (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
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