UCLA vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsOSU
- Q4 1:54OSUJames Peoples 8 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–48
- Q4 8:49UCLAMateen Bhaghani 32 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q3 0:03OSULorenzo Styles Jr. 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–41
- Q3 0:17UCLAKwazi Gilmer 18 Yd pass from Luke Duncan (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–34
- Q3 2:27OSUIsaiah West 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–34
- Q2 0:01OSUJayden Fielding 33 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 1:19OSUJames Peoples 19 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–24
- Q2 4:41OSUBryson Rodgers 11 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–17
- Q1 0:04OSUJayden Fielding 41 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:47OSUBo Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLuke Duncan 16/23, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTroy Leigber 3 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecRico Flores Jr. 2 REC, 59 YDS
- PassJulian Sayin 23/31, 184 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBo Jackson 15 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMylan Graham 3 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. Ohio State?
UCLA 10, Ohio State 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| UCLA | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 222 | Total yards | 440 |
| 154 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 222 |
| 8 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 26/34 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 25:14 | Possession | 34:46 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:32 OSU go for it on 4th & 5 at UCLA 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.46 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:54OSUJames Peoples 8 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–48
- Q4 8:49UCLAMateen Bhaghani 32 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q3 0:03OSULorenzo Styles Jr. 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–41
- Q3 0:17UCLAKwazi Gilmer 18 Yd pass from Luke Duncan (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–34
- Q3 2:27OSUIsaiah West 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–34
- Q2 0:01OSUJayden Fielding 33 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 1:19OSUJames Peoples 19 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–24
- Q2 4:41OSUBryson Rodgers 11 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–17
- Q1 0:04OSUJayden Fielding 41 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:47OSUBo Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2125, UCLA Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -32.2 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 5–4–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.4 (#84) | CORE overall | +39.2 (#1) |
| -2 / +4 | offense / defense | +14 / -26 |
| 1.90 | points / drive | 3.43 |
| 3.43 | allowed / drive | 1.15 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →