UCF vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsKSU
- Q4 2:41KSULuis Rodriguez 48 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q4 9:34UCFNoe Ruelas 40 Yd Field Goal 20–31
- Q3 0:20UCFJaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)17–31
- Q3 1:50KSUDylan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)10–31
- Q3 2:01UCFNoe Ruelas 53 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 9:58KSUGarrett Oakley 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–24
- Q2 0:45KSUWill Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–17
- Q2 2:54UCFDJ Black 82 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–10
- Q2 3:52KSUJoe Jackson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–10
- Q2 13:03KSULuis Rodriguez 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassTayven Jackson 12/24, 115 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMyles Montgomery 10 CAR, 119 YDS
- RecDJ Black 1 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAvery Johnson 18/25, 168 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDylan Edwards 20 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaron Tibbs 8 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:58UCF +26%
Dylan Edwards run for 5 yds to the UCF 46
- Q3 12:42UCF +25%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 39
- Q2 0:45KSU +20%
Will Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- Q3 2:01UCF +20%
Noe Ruelas 53 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 3:52KSU +12%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
- Q3 0:20UCF +9%
Jaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Kansas State?
UCF 20, Kansas State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| UCF | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 402 | Total yards | 434 |
| 197 | Passing yards | 168 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 266 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/26 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 27:51 | Possession | 32:09 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:03 KSU field goal on 4th & 2 at UCF 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.33 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:41KSULuis Rodriguez 48 Yd Field Goal 20–34
- Q4 9:34UCFNoe Ruelas 40 Yd Field Goal 20–31
- Q3 0:20UCFJaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)17–31
- Q3 1:50KSUDylan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)10–31
- Q3 2:01UCFNoe Ruelas 53 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 9:58KSUGarrett Oakley 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–24
- Q2 0:45KSUWill Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–17
- Q2 2:54UCFDJ Black 82 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–10
- Q2 3:52KSUJoe Jackson 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–10
- Q2 13:03KSULuis Rodriguez 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1640, UCF Elo 1604 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -3.8 (61% to win) — 2.2 points clear of UCF's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UCF | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#80) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#49) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | +3 / -4 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →