| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| KSU | 0 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KSU Elo 1640, UCF Elo 1604) plus home-field advantage. That projects KSU -3.8 (61% to win) — 2.2 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -6.
KSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCF 20, Kansas State 34.
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
DJ Black 82 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Noe Ruelas Kick)
Dylan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
Jaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)
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