UCF
3-2·Big 12· Elo 1572
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| CIN | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1541, UCF Elo 1572) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN -1.2 (53% to win) — 9.3 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -10.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UCF ahead, below = CIN ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
CIN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCF 11, Cincinnati 20.
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CIN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 40 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
Cam Fancher pass complete to Dylan Wade for 30 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST down
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 67 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST down
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