UCF vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsCIN
- Q4 2:07UCFCam Fancher 3 Yd Run (Chris Domercant Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)11–20
- Q4 13:39CINStephen Rusnak 24 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:24UCFNoe Ruelas 45 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 4:13CINStephen Rusnak 32 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:12CINJeff Caldwell 9 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:23CINJeff Caldwell 40 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.4
- PassCam Fancher 28/49, 222 YDS
- RushCam Fancher 20 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDylan Wade 5 REC, 55 YDS
- PassBrendan Sorsby 12/21, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- RushEvan Pryor 11 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecJoe Royer 2 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:23CIN +18%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 40 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q2 12:12CIN +14%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 9 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q4 13:39CIN +9%
Stephen Rusnak 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Cincinnati?
UCF 11, Cincinnati 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
| UCF | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 306 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 191 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 26 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 28/49 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-75 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 39:44 | Possession | 20:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:57 CIN punt on 4th & 2 at CIN 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:07UCFCam Fancher 3 Yd Run (Chris Domercant Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)11–20
- Q4 13:39CINStephen Rusnak 24 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:24UCFNoe Ruelas 45 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 4:13CINStephen Rusnak 32 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 12:12CINJeff Caldwell 9 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:23CINJeff Caldwell 40 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1541, UCF Elo 1572 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -1.2 (54% to win) — 9.3 points clear of UCF's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCincinnati leads 6–5 · Cincinnati has won 2 straight · 45% have been one-possession games
| UCF | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#80) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#50) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | +12 / +5 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →