UCF vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsBYU
- Q4 3:53BYUWill Ferrin 50 Yd Field Goal 21–41
- Q3 0:47BYUParker Kingston 46 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)21–38
- Q3 3:24UCFTayven Jackson 4 Yd pass from Agyeman Addae (Noe Ruelas Kick)21–31
- Q3 7:13BYUParker Kingston 55 Yd Punt Return (Will Ferrin Kick)14–31
- Q3 8:54BYULJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:09BYUWill Ferrin 26 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 4:54BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–14
- Q2 13:34BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:39UCFTa. Jackson pass to A. Addae for 20 yds, for a TD (N. Ruelas KICK)14–0
- Q1 9:27UCFDylan Wade 4 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTayven Jackson 21/37, 232 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMyles Montgomery 7 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecDuane Thomas Jr. 4 REC, 74 YDS
- PassBear Bachmeier 21/25, 289 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLJ Martin 22 CAR, 95 YDS, 3 TD
- RecParker Kingston 6 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:54BYU +20%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 13:34BYU +20%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:39UCF +20%
Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #35 A.Addae caught at BYU05, for 20 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 9:27UCF +15%
Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #0 D.Wade caught at BYU00, for 4 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 8:54BYU +12%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q2 0:09BYU +7%
#44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. BYU?
UCF 21, BYU 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| UCF | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 296 | Total yards | 407 |
| 254 | Passing yards | 289 |
| 42 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/41 | Comp/Att | 21/25 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 11.6 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-34 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 24:52 | Possession | 35:08 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:53BYUWill Ferrin 50 Yd Field Goal 21–41
- Q3 0:47BYUParker Kingston 46 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)21–38
- Q3 3:24UCFTayven Jackson 4 Yd pass from Agyeman Addae (Noe Ruelas Kick)21–31
- Q3 7:13BYUParker Kingston 55 Yd Punt Return (Will Ferrin Kick)14–31
- Q3 8:54BYULJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:09BYUWill Ferrin 26 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 4:54BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–14
- Q2 13:34BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:39UCFTa. Jackson pass to A. Addae for 20 yds, for a TD (N. Ruelas KICK)14–0
- Q1 9:27UCFDylan Wade 4 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1781, UCF Elo 1464 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -15.1 (84% to win) — 2.4 points clear of UCF's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UCF | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#80) | CORE overall | +18.0 (#20) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →