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UCF vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 29, 6:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 14 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| BYU | 0 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 41 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BYU 1781
UCF 1464
Projected spread
BYU -15.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
87% to win
Market spread
BYU -17.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UCF
2.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
87%
BYU · market 88%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BYU Elo 1781, UCF Elo 1464) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -15.1 (87% to win) — 2.4 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -17.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BYU (top)UCF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BYU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UCF2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBYU
Offense
0.14
PPA / play
0.2239%
Success rate
46%1.38
Explosiveness
1.193.49
Pts / opportunity
4.0362%
Power success
82%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.0944%
Success rate allowed
39%1.12
Explosiveness allowed
1.2216%
Havoc rate
16%16%
Stuff rate
21%Key matchups · Pro
- BYU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. UCF pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge BYU.
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UCF rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge BYU.
- UCF rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge UCF.
Drive-by-drive
UCF 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →BYU 6/10 scoring drives
UCFTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BYUPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1
UCFTD7 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q1
BYUTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
UCFINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
BYUMISS7 pl, 7 yds· opp 29Q2
UCFPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q2
BYUTD7 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q2
UCFPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2
BYUFG10 pl, 72 yds· own 20Q2
UCFEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
BYUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
UCFTD3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q3
UCFTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
BYUTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
UCFFUM5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3
BYUMISS6 pl, 16 yds· opp 46Q4
UCFDOWNS8 pl, 32 yds· own 30Q4
BYUFG7 pl, 30 yds· own 38Q4
UCFDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4
BYUDOWNS4 pl, -3 yds· opp 31Q4
UCFUncateg2 pl, 18 yds· own 34Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BYU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
BYU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. BYU?
UCF 21, BYU 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.