UCF vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsBAY
- Q4 6:04BAYKole Wilson 9 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–30
- Q3 4:28BAYConnor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q2 0:01UCFNoe Ruelas 45 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 2:28BAYConnor Hawkins 28 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 14:14BAYConnor Hawkins 40 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 6:41BAYJosh Cameron 2 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:49BAYMichael Trigg 13 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTayven Jackson 18/33, 151 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMyles Montgomery 12 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecDuane Thomas Jr. 8 REC, 77 YDS
- PassSawyer Robertson 29/40, 267 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCaden Knighten 21 CAR, 104 YDS
- RecMichael Trigg 5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:49BAY +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #1 M.Trigg caught at UCF00, for 13 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 6:41BAY +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at UCF00, for 2 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:14BAY +7%
#96 C.Hawkins field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
- Q3 4:28BAY +6%
#96 C.Hawkins field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD
- Q2 2:28BAY +5%
#96 C.Hawkins field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Baylor?
UCF 3, Baylor 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCF | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 225 | Total yards | 417 |
| 151 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 74 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 13 | First downs | 24 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 18/33 | Comp/Att | 29/40 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-50 | Penalties | 6-75 |
| 26:02 | Possession | 33:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:36 UCF go for it on 4th & 6 at BAY 10. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:04BAYKole Wilson 9 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)3–30
- Q3 4:28BAYConnor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal 3–23
- Q2 0:01UCFNoe Ruelas 45 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 2:28BAYConnor Hawkins 28 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 14:14BAYConnor Hawkins 40 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 6:41BAYJosh Cameron 2 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:49BAYMichael Trigg 13 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1542, UCF Elo 1616 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY +0.6 (50% to win) — 3.6 points clear of UCF's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UCF | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#80) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#54) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | +6 / +0 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →