UCF
Big 12· Elo 1616
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| BAY | 14 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BAY Elo 1542, UCF Elo 1616) plus home-field advantage. That projects BAY +0.6 (48% to win) — 3.6 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -3.
BAY up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCF 3, Baylor 30.
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UCF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(02:27) #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #88 C.Meadows thrown to BAY00 QB hurried by #32 E.Winston, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete deep right to #2 K.Wilson caught at UCF35, for 27 yards to the UCF31 (#8 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWN
(11:43) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY08 (#9 C.Lanz), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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