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UAB vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 1, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 19 |
| CONN | 7 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CONN 1546
UAB 1252
Projected spread
CONN -14.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
CONN
85% to win
Market spread
CONN -10.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CONN
3.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
85%
CONN · market 77%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CONN Elo 1546, UAB Elo 1252) plus home-field advantage. That projects CONN -14.2 (85% to win) — 3.7 points of value on CONN versus the market line of -10.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CONN (top)UAB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CONN 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UAB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCONN
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.3142%
Success rate
46%1.33
Explosiveness
1.343.63
Pts / opportunity
4.5871%
Power success
82%Defense
0.34
PPA allowed / play
0.2249%
Success rate allowed
47%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2012%
Havoc rate
15%14%
Stuff rate
12%Key matchups · Pro
- CONN pass offense (0.44 PPA) vs. UAB pass defense (0.52 allowed) — edge UAB.
- UAB rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. CONN rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CONN.
- CONN rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UAB rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge UAB.
Drive-by-drive
UAB 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →CONN 6/10 scoring drives
CONNDOWNS11 pl, 58 yds· own 22Q1
UABINT9 pl, 59 yds· own 20Q1
CONNTD9 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
UABPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
CONNTD10 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2
UABINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
CONNFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 37Q2
UABPUNT5 pl, -20 yds· own 25Q2
CONNTD3 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q2
UABDOWNS12 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q2
UABDOWNS8 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q3
CONNTD7 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q3
UABTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
CONNTD6 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3
UABINT11 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q3
CONNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 22Q4
UABTD4 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q4
CONNPUNT8 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4
UABTD15 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
CONNEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 40Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CONN up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
CONN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. UConn?
UAB 19, UConn 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CONN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.