UAB vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsCONN
- Q4 0:00to , for a TD (C. Freeman KICK) (J. Delange KICK)19–21
- Q4 0:07UABKaleb Brown 13 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)19–38
- Q4 12:09UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 32 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–38
- Q3 5:18CONNSkyler Bell 39 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)6–38
- Q3 7:18UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 68 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q3 8:02CONNJuice Vereen 6 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–31
- Q2 3:56CONNSkyler Bell 9 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–24
- Q2 8:44CONNChris Freeman 50 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q2 10:45CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:04CONNSkyler Bell 26 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRyder Burton 21/30, 209 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJevon Jackson 9 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecBrandon Hawkins Jr. 4 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoe Fagnano 23/30, 267 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCam Edwards 15 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSkyler Bell 8 REC, 149 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. UConn?
UAB 19, UConn 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| UAB | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 374 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 154 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 23/30 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 31:09 | Possession | 28:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:23 CONN go for it on 4th & 5 at UAB 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00to , for a TD (C. Freeman KICK) (J. Delange KICK)19–21
- Q4 0:07UABKaleb Brown 13 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)19–38
- Q4 12:09UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 32 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–38
- Q3 5:18CONNSkyler Bell 39 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)6–38
- Q3 7:18UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 68 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q3 8:02CONNJuice Vereen 6 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–31
- Q2 3:56CONNSkyler Bell 9 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–24
- Q2 8:44CONNChris Freeman 50 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q2 10:45CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:04CONNSkyler Bell 26 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 1546, UAB Elo 1252 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN -14.2 (83% to win) — 3.7 points clear of CONN's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UAB | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.8 (#112) | CORE overall | -7.6 (#89) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | +5 / +13 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 3.14 |
| 3.61 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →