Tulsa vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsECU
- Q4 1:49TLSASeth Morgan 26 Yd Field Goal 27–41
- Q4 5:22ECUKatin Houser 2 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)24–41
- Q4 10:51ECUNick Mazzie 32 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q4 14:47TLSAStephen Kittleman 1 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)24–31
- Q3 7:12TLSASeth Morgan 46 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 13:09ECULondon Montgomery 51 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–31
- Q2 9:33ECUAnthony Smith 63 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:51TLSAZion Booker 4 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:57ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:44TLSABrody Foley 38 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:08ECUAnthony Smith 66 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:52ECUNick Mazzie 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TLSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ECU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.9 vs 3rd & 4.7
- PassBaylor Hayes 23/41, 251 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDominic Richardson 17 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecBrody Foley 6 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKatin Houser 21/38, 300 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLondon Montgomery 16 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Smith 4 REC, 150 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:47TLSA +7%
Stephen Kittleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
- Q4 10:51ECU +7%
Nick Mazzie 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 11:51TLSA +6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
- Q2 9:33ECU +5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 63 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. East Carolina?
Tulsa 27, East Carolina 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
| TLSA | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 398 | Total yards | 568 |
| 251 | Passing yards | 300 |
| 147 | Rushing yards | 268 |
| 21 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 23/41 | Comp/Att | 21/38 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 30:56 | Possession | 29:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:42 TLSA punt on 4th & 2 at TLSA 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49TLSASeth Morgan 26 Yd Field Goal 27–41
- Q4 5:22ECUKatin Houser 2 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)24–41
- Q4 10:51ECUNick Mazzie 32 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q4 14:47TLSAStephen Kittleman 1 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)24–31
- Q3 7:12TLSASeth Morgan 46 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 13:09ECULondon Montgomery 51 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–31
- Q2 9:33ECUAnthony Smith 63 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:51TLSAZion Booker 4 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:57ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:44TLSABrody Foley 38 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:08ECUAnthony Smith 66 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:52ECUNick Mazzie 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1540, TLSA Elo 1045 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU -22.2 (92% to win) — 5.7 points clear of ECU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEast Carolina leads 10–9 · East Carolina has won 2 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 (#90) | CORE overall | +7.8 (#46) |
| -8 / +0 | offense / defense | +2 / -5 |
| 1.91 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →