| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| ECU | 10 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ECU Elo 1540, TLSA Elo 1045) plus home-field advantage. That projects ECU -22.2 (95% to win) — 5.7 points of value on ECU versus the market line of -16.5.
ECU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulsa 27, East Carolina 41.
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ECU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 66 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 63 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 36 yds to the ECU 23 for a 1ST down
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