Tulsa
3-7·American Athletic· Elo 1094
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 7 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| ARMY | 7 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 25 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARMY Elo 1529, TLSA Elo 1094) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -19.8 (93% to win) — 9.8 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of -10.
ARMY up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulsa 26, Army 25.
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ARMY pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(02:46) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 4 yards loss to the Army14 fumbled by #10 B.Hayes at Army15 recovered by Army #40 E.Ford at Army14 #40 E.Ford return 1 yard to the Army15 (#10 B.Hayes)
(13:57) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #18 D.Gee Jr. caught at Army32, for 50 yards to the Army21 (#7 J.Mayes), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Army Pass Interference declined
(12:23) #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep middle to #15 N.Short caught at Tulsa39, for 44 yards to the Tulsa31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
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