Tulsa vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsARMY
- Q4 0:12TLSASeth Morgan 27 Yd Field Goal 26–25
- Q4 1:53TLSAJosh Smith 8 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–25
- Q4 4:17TLSASeth Morgan 48 Yd Field Goal 17–25
- Q3 7:03ARMYDawson Jones 33 Yd Field Goal 14–25
- Q2 0:24ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)14–22
- Q2 5:47ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Cale Hellums Pass to Tex Brannan for Two-Point Conversion)14–15
- Q2 14:01TLSAAjay Allen 7 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)14–7
- Q1 11:34ARMYCale Hellums 31 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:23TLSADominic Richardson 3 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBaylor Hayes 20/31, 267 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDominic Richardson 28 CAR, 203 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZion Steptoe 5 REC, 76 YDS
- PassCale Hellums 6/10, 64 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCale Hellums 32 CAR, 159 YDS, 3 TD
- RecNoah Short 4 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:12TLSA +78%
#11 S.Morgan kickoff 0 yards to the Tulsa35 PENALTY Army Roughing The Kicker (#7 J.Mayes) 15 yards from Tulsa35 to Tulsa50. NO PLAY
- Q4 0:10ARMY +77%
Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #11 T.Olawole caught at Army33, for 5 yards to the Army30 lateral to #23 L.Benson III for 8 yards loss to the Army23…
- Q4 0:12TLSA +64%
#11 S.Morgan field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q4 1:53TLSA +34%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #15 J.Smith caught at Army00, for 8 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN #10 B.Hayes pass attempt failed
- Q4 1:27TLSA +30%
Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #15 J.Smith caught at Tulsa47, for 14 yards to the Army47 (#51 A.Thomas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 1:50ARMY +28%
#33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa44 (#58 T.Rich; #10 T.Hardiman)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Army?
Tulsa 26, Army 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TLSA | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 497 | Total yards | 311 |
| 267 | Passing yards | 64 |
| 230 | Rushing yards | 247 |
| 26 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 6/10 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-67 | Penalties | 2-26 |
| 25:24 | Possession | 34:36 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:55 ARMY punt on 4th & 5 at ARMY 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:12TLSASeth Morgan 27 Yd Field Goal 26–25
- Q4 1:53TLSAJosh Smith 8 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–25
- Q4 4:17TLSASeth Morgan 48 Yd Field Goal 17–25
- Q3 7:03ARMYDawson Jones 33 Yd Field Goal 14–25
- Q2 0:24ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)14–22
- Q2 5:47ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Cale Hellums Pass to Tex Brannan for Two-Point Conversion)14–15
- Q2 14:01TLSAAjay Allen 7 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)14–7
- Q1 11:34ARMYCale Hellums 31 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:23TLSADominic Richardson 3 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1529, TLSA Elo 1094 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -19.8 (90% to win) — 9.8 points clear of ARMY's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#96 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #42 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| TLSA | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.2 (#90) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#74) |
| -8 / +0 | offense / defense | -0 / +3 |
| 1.91 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -34 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →