Troy
4-2·Sun Belt· Elo 1471
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 37 |
| ULM | 0 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ULM Elo 1077, TROY Elo 1471) plus home-field advantage. That projects ULM +13.4 (16% to win) — 8.4 points of value on TROY versus the market line of +5.
TROY up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Troy 37, UL Monroe 14.
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TROY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Joe Lott return for 53 yds for a TD UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 60 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 18
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