Troy vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsBUF
- Q4 0:45TROYTae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)21–17
- Q4 5:45TROYRara Thomas 10 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–17
- Q4 10:23TROYTucker Kilcrease 6 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–17
- Q4 14:56BUFJack Howes 39 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q3 9:12BUFAl-Jay Henderson 22 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:31BUFJames McNeil Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTucker Kilcrease 14/24, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTae Meadows 14 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRaRa Thomas 5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 9/15, 104 YDS
- RushAl-Jay Henderson 22 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJasaiah Gathings 2 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:45TROY +73%
Tae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
- Q4 5:45TROY +32%
Rara Thomas 10 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
- Q4 2:33BUF +29%
Dylan Drennan punt for 36 yds, Peyton Higgins returns for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
- Q4 2:33TROY +23%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the BUF 49
- Q4 5:45BUF +19%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Marcus Velez
- Q4 4:07TROY +18%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 53 yds
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Buffalo?
Troy 21, Buffalo 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TROY | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Total yards | 278 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 153 |
| 163 | Rushing yards | 125 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 10-21 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 14/28 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-60 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 32:52 | Possession | 27:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:00 BUF punt on 4th & 2 at BUF 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:45TROYTae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)21–17
- Q4 5:45TROYRara Thomas 10 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–17
- Q4 10:23TROYTucker Kilcrease 6 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–17
- Q4 14:56BUFJack Howes 39 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q3 9:12BUFAl-Jay Henderson 22 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:31BUFJames McNeil Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1386, TROY Elo 1435 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -0.4 (52% to win) — 5.6 points clear of TROY's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TROY | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.6 (#116) | CORE overall | -19.7 (#124) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | -15 / +5 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →