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Troy vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 |
| BUF | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BUF 1386
TROY 1435
Projected spread
BUF -0.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
BUF
51% to win
Market spread
BUF -6
sportsbook line
Model edge
TROY
5.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
51%
BUF · market 66%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BUF Elo 1386, TROY Elo 1435) plus home-field advantage. That projects BUF -0.4 (51% to win) — 5.6 points of value on TROY versus the market line of -6.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BUF (top)TROY (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUF 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TROY2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBUF
Offense
0.10
PPA / play
0.0738%
Success rate
39%1.30
Explosiveness
1.203.67
Pts / opportunity
3.5078%
Power success
69%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.1240%
Success rate allowed
39%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2316%
Havoc rate
15%20%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- BUF rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. TROY rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge TROY.
- TROY pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. BUF pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge BUF.
- TROY rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. BUF rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge BUF.
Drive-by-drive
TROY 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →BUF 3/12 scoring drives
BUFPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q1
TROYPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 7Q1
BUFTD7 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
TROYPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 34Q1
BUFPUNT6 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q1
TROYPUNT8 pl, 19 yds· own 23Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 4Q2
TROYFUM10 pl, 26 yds· own 47Q2
BUFPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 18Q2
TROYPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 38Q2
BUFPUNT4 pl, 2 yds· own 4Q2
TROYEND10 pl, 19 yds· opp 45Q2
TROYDOWNS7 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q3
BUFTD6 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3
TROYINT5 pl, 46 yds· own 15Q3
BUFFG14 pl, 51 yds· own 28Q3
TROYTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
BUFPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
TROYTD7 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4
BUFPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4
TROYPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 38Q4
BUFPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 10Q4
TROYTD9 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ4
BUFDOWNS6 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4
TROYUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BUF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
BUF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Buffalo?
Troy 21, Buffalo 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BUF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.