Texas vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsUGA
- Q4 4:43UGAGunner Stockton 4 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–35
- Q4 8:53UGALawson Luckie 6 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–28
- Q4 14:20UGALondon Humphreys 30 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–21
- Q3 5:27TEXRyan Wingo 7 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:49UGANoah Thomas 4 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:12UGANoah Thomas 17 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:53TEXMason Shipley 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEX played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UGA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.4
- TEX lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassArch Manning 27/43, 251 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 9 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecDeAndre Moore Jr. 5 REC, 75 YDS
- PassGunner Stockton 24/29, 229 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Frazier 16 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecLondon Humphreys 2 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:27TEX +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short middle to #1 R.Wingo caught at UGA00, for 7 yards to the UGA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 4:12UGA +18%
#14 G.Stockton pass complete short right to #5 N.Thomas caught at TEX00, for 17 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 14:20UGA +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete deep right to #16 L.Humphreys caught at TEX09, for 30 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:49UGA +14%
Noah Thomas 4 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)
- Q3 0:55UGA +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass incomplete deep right to #5 N.Thomas thrown to TEX20 PENALTY TEX Offside (#1 C.Simmons) 5 yards from TEX49 to TEX44, 1ST DOWN. NO…
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Georgia?
Texas 10, Georgia 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| TEX | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 274 | Total yards | 357 |
| 251 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 23 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/43 | Comp/Att | 24/29 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-58 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 24:51 | Possession | 35:09 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:34 UGA punt on 4th & 5 at TEX 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:43UGAGunner Stockton 4 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–35
- Q4 8:53UGALawson Luckie 6 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–28
- Q4 14:20UGALondon Humphreys 30 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–21
- Q3 5:27TEXRyan Wingo 7 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:49UGANoah Thomas 4 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:12UGANoah Thomas 17 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:53TEXMason Shipley 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2018, TEX Elo 1924 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -6.2 (67% to win) — 2.7 points clear of UGA's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 4–4 · Georgia has won 3 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| TEX | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#28) | CORE overall | +20.0 (#15) |
| +5 / -9 | offense / defense | +9 / -11 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 3.08 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →