Texas
7-2·SEC· Elo 1924
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| UGA | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UGA Elo 2018, TEX Elo 1924) plus home-field advantage. That projects UGA -6.2 (68% to win) — 2.7 points of value on UGA versus the market line of -3.5.
UGA up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas 10, Georgia 35.
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short right to #3 E.Mosley V thrown to UGA00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass intercepted by #4 K.Bolden at UGA16, End Of Play
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #0 D.Moore Jr. caught at UGA49, for 12 yards to the UGA47 (#1 E.Robinson IV), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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