Texas State vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsARST
- Q4 0:07ARSTJaylen Raynor 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)30–31
- Q4 1:00TXSTLincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed)30–24
- Q4 1:20ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)24–24
- Q4 3:45TXSTLincoln Pare 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)24–17
- Q4 6:40ARSTHunter Summers 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)17–17
- Q4 12:05TXSTTitus Lyons 13 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–10
- Q2 5:48TXSTTyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 10:29ARSTClune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 2:04ARSTJaylen Raynor 13 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:01TXSTBrad Jackson 24 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBrad Jackson 18/26, 230 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBrad Jackson 10 CAR, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBeau Sparks 3 REC, 58 YDS
- PassJaylen Raynor 27/35, 248 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJaylen Raynor 19 CAR, 92 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCorey Rucker 8 REC, 102 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:20ARST +69%
Kenyon Clay 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)
- Q4 1:00TXST +69%
Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed)
- Q4 1:14ARST +36%
Brad Jackson run for 63 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:59TXST +32%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 9 yds to the ARST 34
- Q4 12:04TXST +31%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 6 yds to the ARST 31
- Q4 3:45TXST +28%
Lincoln Pare 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Arkansas State?
Texas State 30, Arkansas State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TXST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 521 | Total yards | 398 |
| 232 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 289 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 27/35 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-75 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 30:13 | Possession | 29:47 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:25 ARST punt on 4th & 4 at ARST 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.22 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:07ARSTJaylen Raynor 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)30–31
- Q4 1:00TXSTLincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles PAT failed)30–24
- Q4 1:20ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)24–24
- Q4 3:45TXSTLincoln Pare 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)24–17
- Q4 6:40ARSTHunter Summers 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)17–17
- Q4 12:05TXSTTitus Lyons 13 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–10
- Q2 5:48TXSTTyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 10:29ARSTClune Van Andel 51 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 2:04ARSTJaylen Raynor 13 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:01TXSTBrad Jackson 24 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1213, TXST Elo 1590 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST +12.7 (21% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#73 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #22 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 8–5 · 31% have been one-possession games
| TXST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.4 (#41) | CORE overall | -16.8 (#118) |
| +12 / +3 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 3.21 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →