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Texas State vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 4, 8:00 PM
Centennial Bank StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 30 |
| ARST | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARST 1213
TXST 1590
Projected spread
ARST +12.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
TXST
83% to win
Market spread
ARST +14
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
17%
ARST · market 19%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARST Elo 1213, TXST Elo 1590) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARST +12.7 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)TXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TXST2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedARST
Offense
0.33
PPA / play
0.0946%
Success rate
42%1.36
Explosiveness
1.164.42
Pts / opportunity
3.3167%
Power success
70%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.1941%
Success rate allowed
43%1.32
Explosiveness allowed
1.2916%
Havoc rate
16%24%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ARST rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge TXST.
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. TXST rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge TXST.
Drive-by-drive
TXST 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 5/13 scoring drives
TXSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ARSTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
TXSTPUNT4 pl, -2 yds· own 44Q1
ARSTPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 15Q1
TXSTPUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 24Q1
ARSTTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
TXSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
ARSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 35Q1
TXSTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 1Q2
ARSTFG6 pl, 21 yds· own 45Q2
TXSTTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
ARSTPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2
TXSTPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 38Q2
ARSTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 28Q2
ARSTPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3
TXSTPUNT7 pl, 9 yds· own 16Q3
ARSTPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 32Q3
TXSTDOWNS9 pl, 41 yds· own 43Q3
ARSTPUNT8 pl, 14 yds· own 16Q3
ARSTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
TXSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
ARSTTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
TXSTTD2 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4
ARSTTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
ARST win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Arkansas State?
Texas State 30, Arkansas State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had TXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.