Texas Southern vs. California: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Texas Southern

03

California1-0

▸0035

Final

California Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
TEXA	0	0	0	3	3
CAL	3	8	14	10	35

TEXATeam statsCAL

192Total yards467

140Pass294

52Rush173

13First downs22

3-143rd down6-12

1Turnovers2

28:22Possession31:38

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:09CALJayden Dixon-Veal 14 Yd pass from Devin Brown (Chase Meyer Kick)3–35
• Q4 10:18CALChase Meyer 43 Yd Field Goal 3–28
• Q4 13:58TEXAChristian Avelar 39 Yd Field Goal 3–25
• Q3 5:27CALLJ Johnson Jr. 12 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–25
• Q3 9:38CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–18
• Q2 1:19CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 1 Yd Run (Mason Mini Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–11
• Q1 11:37CALAbram Murray 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

CAL −44.5

Against the number

TEXA covered

line CAL −44.5

What the numbers say

• TEXA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CAL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CAL 100%50%TEXA 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CAL (top)TEXA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CAL 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CAL −44.5

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

TEXA 3 – 35 CAL

Leaders

Texas Southern

• PassKJ Cooper 19/35, 137 YDS, 1 INT
• RushKJ Cooper 7 CAR, 30 YDS
• RecJalen Williams 6 REC, 42 YDS

California

• PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 27/38, 267 YDS, 1 INT
• RushKendrick Raphael 17 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJacob De Jesus 6 REC, 69 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

149

Points / snap

0.26

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CAL up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 806 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

CAL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMontana State vs UC Davis30-28WKansas vs UCF51-22WUSC vs Rutgers42-20WArmy vs Temple42-14WApp State vs Georgia Southern55-28

Fourth downs

23 calls

TEXA gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.TEXA 6/12 · CAL 6/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Texas Southern vs. California?

Texas Southern 3, California 35.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CAL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TEXA

CAL

29%

Success rate

46%

-0.41

EPA / pass

0.13

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.28

33%

Early-down success

49%

25%

Pass success

42%

37%

Rush success

50%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

11%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

68%

Pass rate

53%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.7

TEXA

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

CAL

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

90 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TEXA		CAL
192	Total yards	467
140	Passing yards	294
52	Rushing yards	173
13	First downs	22
3-14	3rd down	6-12
0-0	4th down	1-2
20/36	Comp/Att	29/40
3.9	Yards per pass	7.4
2.4	Yards per rush	5.2
1	Turnovers	2
10-75	Penalties	7-81
28:22	Possession	31:38

Fourth downs

23 calls

TEXA

6/12 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

CAL

6/10 with the model

−1.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 2:12 CAL punt on 4th & 1 at CAL 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.

Every call, priced (23)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TEXA 0/9 scoring drives← own end zone →CAL 4/10 scoring drives

CALINT4 pl, 21 yds· own 20Q2

CALPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q1

TEXAPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 26Q1

CALFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 29Q1

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 21Q1

TEXAPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 36Q1

CALFUM7 pl, 36 yds· own 28Q1

CALPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 11Q1

TEXAPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 47Q1

CALDOWNS6 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q1

TEXAPUNT6 pl, 35 yds· own 29Q2

CALTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 13Q3

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

CALFG8 pl, 38 yds· own 37Q4

CALTD11 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q4

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 16Q4

TEXAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 40Q4

CALEND2 pl, 8 yds· own 33Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:09CALJayden Dixon-Veal 14 Yd pass from Devin Brown (Chase Meyer Kick)3–35
• Q4 10:18CALChase Meyer 43 Yd Field Goal 3–28
• Q4 13:58TEXAChristian Avelar 39 Yd Field Goal 3–25
• Q3 5:27CALLJ Johnson Jr. 12 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–25
• Q3 9:38CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)0–18
• Q2 1:19CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 1 Yd Run (Mason Mini Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–11
• Q1 11:37CALAbram Murray 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →