Kenan StadiumConference game
Sat, Nov 8, 9:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| UNC | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNC Elo 1394, STAN Elo 1245) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNC -8.4 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UNC up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Stanford 15, North Carolina 20.
Yes — the model's pick (UNC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jordan Shipp 55 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)
End of 2nd quarter.
End of 1st quarter.
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