Stanford vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsUNC
- Q4 1:48STANCJ Williams 24 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–20
- Q4 8:28STANCole Tabb 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–20
- Q4 12:04UNCJordan Shipp 55 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–20
- Q4 14:16UNCRece Verhoff 48 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q3 7:43UNCDavion Gause 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–10
- Q2 0:00STANEmmet Kenney 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:49UNCRece Verhoff 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassElijah Brown 27/39, 284 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMicah Ford 17 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecCaden High 10 REC, 102 YDS
- PassGio Lopez 18/25, 203 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDavion Gause 11 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecJordan Shipp 5 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNC up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:43UNC +25%
Davion Gause 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)
- Q4 1:44UNC +14%
#37 D.Gause rush middle for 3 yards loss to the STA50 (#29 D.Davis)
- Q2 0:00STAN +10%
Emmet Kenney 38 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 14:16UNC +9%
Rece Verhoff 48 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 1:48STAN +9%
CJ Williams 24 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- Q3 0:51UNC +9%
Shotgun #28 B.Hall rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STA47 (#35 M.Rose)
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. North Carolina?
Stanford 15, North Carolina 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNC) was correct.
| STAN | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total yards | 253 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 36 | Rushing yards | 50 |
| 22 | First downs | 13 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/39 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-80 | Penalties | 11-73 |
| 32:37 | Possession | 27:23 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:42 UNC punt on 4th & 2 at STAN 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:48STANCJ Williams 24 Yd pass from Elijah Brown (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–20
- Q4 8:28STANCole Tabb 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–20
- Q4 12:04UNCJordan Shipp 55 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–20
- Q4 14:16UNCRece Verhoff 48 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q3 7:43UNCDavion Gause 20 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–10
- Q2 0:00STANEmmet Kenney 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:49UNCRece Verhoff 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1394, STAN Elo 1245 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -8.4 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| STAN | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.6 (#102) | CORE overall | -10.5 (#97) |
| -11 / +1 | offense / defense | -8 / +3 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →