St. Francis (PA) vs. Buffalo: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

St. Francis (PA)0-1

Buffalo0-1

▸

Final

UB Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ST.	0	0	0	6	6
BUF	17	7	14	7	45

ST. Team statsBUF

119Total yards503

115Pass133

4Rush370

7First downs32

4-153rd down11-17

1Turnovers2

22:41Possession37:19

Q4 4:52BUFJames McNeil Jr. 26 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)6–45
Q4 10:06ST. Jordan Theodore 1 Yd Run (Mac Plummer PAT failed)6–38
Q3 1:01BUFTa'Quan Roberson 4 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–38
Q3 5:07BUFTa'Quan Roberson 40 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–31
Q2 5:31BUFAl-Jay Henderson 10 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–24
Q1 0:50BUFAl-Jay Henderson 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)0–17
Q1 7:01BUFJack Howes 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
Q1 12:20BUFVictor Snow 17 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

BUF −37

Against the number

BUF covered

line BUF −37

What the numbers say

ST. played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BUF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 4.3

Kickoff153 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BUF (top)ST. (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUF 100%

Closing line

BUF −37

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

ST. 6 – 45 BUF

St. Francis (PA)

PassNick Whitfield Jr. 17/27, 111 YDS
RushRaph Ekechi 8 CAR, 21 YDS
RecPeyton Nelson 4 REC, 34 YDS

Buffalo

PassTa'Quan Roberson 10/20, 133 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushAl-Jay Henderson 24 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
RecVictor Snow 3 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD

24.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

136

Points / snap

0.38

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BUF up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

BUF went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas State vs Southeast Missouri State45-0 WMichigan State vs Richmond45-14 WSoutheast Missouri State vs Lindenwood45-7 WMontana State vs Stetson57-20 WMissouri State vs Utah Tech59-14

FAQ

What was the final score of St. Francis (PA) vs. Buffalo?

St. Francis (PA) 6, Buffalo 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.

ST.

BUF

28%

Success rate

56%

0.06

EPA / pass

0.22

-0.19

EPA / rush

0.38

27%

Early-down success

52%

27%

Pass success

39%

29%

Rush success

62%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

24%

Stuffed rush rate

66%

Pass rate

27%

7.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.3

ST.

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

BUF

4.3 yards to go on 3rd down

86 scrimmage snaps

ST.		BUF
119	Total yards	503
115	Passing yards	133
4	Rushing yards	370
7	First downs	32
4-15	3rd down	11-17
1-2	4th down	2-4
18/31	Comp/Att	11/22
3.7	Yards per pass	6.0
0.2	Yards per rush	5.9
1	Turnovers	2
6-30	Penalties	3-29
22:41	Possession	37:19

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

ST. Team statsBUF

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of St. Francis (PA) vs. Buffalo?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

St. Francis (PA) vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap

ST. Team statsBUF

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of St. Francis (PA) vs. Buffalo?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?