Ross-Ade StadiumClosing line: PUR -21 · SOUT covered
Sat, Sep 6, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
| PUR | 14 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
PUR up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Southern Illinois 17, Purdue 34.
No — the model picked SOUT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SOUT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Christian Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SIU 15
DJ Williams pass complete to Fabian McCray for 63 yds to the PUR 12 for a 1ST down
Ryan Browne pass intercepted
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