Southern Illinois vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Southern Illinois

0017

Purdue1-0

▸0034

Final

Ross-Ade Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	14	0	0	3	17
PUR	14	10	3	7	34

SOUTTeam statsPUR

283Total yards384

202Pass170

81Rush214

20First downs29

5-113rd down9-14

0Turnovers1

23:14Possession36:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:41SOUTPaul Geelen 53 Yd Field Goal 17–34
• Q4 11:48PURDevin Mockobee 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)14–34
• Q3 6:15PURSpencer Porath 43 Yd Field Goal 14–27
• Q2 1:21PURDevin Mockobee 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)14–24
• Q2 10:41PURSpencer Porath 25 Yd Field Goal 14–17
• Q1 1:33PURNitro Tuggle 29 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)14–14
• Q1 5:08SOUTRyan Schwendeman 4 Yd pass from DJ Williams (Paul Geelen Kick)14–7
• Q1 6:34PURArhmad Branch 13 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:29SOUTDJ Williams 7 Yd Run (Paul Geelen Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

PUR −21

Against the number

SOUT covered

line PUR −21

What the numbers say

• SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PUR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

PUR 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff147 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

PUR (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PUR 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

PUR −21

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 17 – 34 PUR

Leaders

Southern Illinois

• PassDJ Williams 20/33, 202 YDS, 1 TD
• RushVinson Davis III 2 CAR, 22 YDS
• RecFabian McCray 2 REC, 72 YDS

Purdue

• PassRyan Browne 14/23, 170 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushDevin Mockobee 32 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD
• RecGeorge Burhenn 3 REC, 48 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.37

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PUR up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

91%

PUR went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWake Forest vs Vanderbilt36-20WWestern Carolina vs Samford30-7WRutgers vs Temple36-7WIllinois vs Florida Atlantic23-17WChattanooga vs Samford47-24

Fourth downs

11 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.SOUT 6/6 · PUR 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Southern Illinois vs. Purdue?

Southern Illinois 17, Purdue 34.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (PUR) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

PUR

48%

Success rate

56%

0.22

EPA / pass

0.29

0.16

EPA / rush

0.19

48%

Early-down success

52%

46%

Pass success

54%

50%

Rush success

57%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

14%

Stuffed rush rate

17%

63%

Pass rate

33%

7.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.1

SOUT

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

PUR

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		PUR
283	Total yards	384
202	Passing yards	170
81	Rushing yards	214
20	First downs	29
5-11	3rd down	9-14
1-2	4th down	2-3
20/34	Comp/Att	14/23
5.9	Yards per pass	7.4
3.1	Yards per rush	4.0
0	Turnovers	1
5-66	Penalties	2-30
23:14	Possession	36:46

Fourth downs

11 calls

SOUT

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

PUR

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 3/9 scoring drives← own end zone →PUR 6/8 scoring drives

SOUTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

PURTD9 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1

SOUTTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

PURTD8 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1

PURFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 41Q2

SOUTDOWNS10 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q2

PURTD12 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2

SOUTMISS10 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q2

PURINT4 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 7Q3

PURFG10 pl, 23 yds· opp 49Q3

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

PURTD13 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3

SOUTFG10 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q4

PURDOWNS13 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTEND5 pl, 32 yds· own 16Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:41SOUTPaul Geelen 53 Yd Field Goal 17–34
• Q4 11:48PURDevin Mockobee 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)14–34
• Q3 6:15PURSpencer Porath 43 Yd Field Goal 14–27
• Q2 1:21PURDevin Mockobee 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)14–24
• Q2 10:41PURSpencer Porath 25 Yd Field Goal 14–17
• Q1 1:33PURNitro Tuggle 29 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)14–14
• Q1 5:08SOUTRyan Schwendeman 4 Yd pass from DJ Williams (Paul Geelen Kick)14–7
• Q1 6:34PURArhmad Branch 13 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:29SOUTDJ Williams 7 Yd Run (Paul Geelen Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →