South Florida vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsMIA
- Q4 1:48MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)12–49
- Q4 7:04MIACharMar Brown 1 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)12–42
- Q4 12:48USFChristian Neptune 12 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–35
- Q3 0:35MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 13 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)6–35
- Q2 2:33MIACarson Beck 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)6–28
- Q2 10:05MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 38 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)6–21
- Q2 11:16USFNico Gramatica 28 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 0:26USFNico Gramatica 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 2:58MIAJoshua Moore 39 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:34MIAJoshua Moore 8 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.8 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassByrum Brown 20/36, 274 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAlvon Isaac 6 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecChas Nimrod 4 REC, 128 YDS
- PassCarson Beck 23/28, 340 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 16 CAR, 120 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKeelan Marion 6 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. Miami?
South Florida 12, Miami 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| USF | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Total yards | 576 |
| 292 | Passing yards | 371 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 15 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-19 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/41 | Comp/Att | 25/30 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 12.4 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 9-69 |
| 23:59 | Possession | 36:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:05 MIA punt on 4th & 1 at MIA 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:48MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)12–49
- Q4 7:04MIACharMar Brown 1 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)12–42
- Q4 12:48USFChristian Neptune 12 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–35
- Q3 0:35MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 13 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)6–35
- Q2 2:33MIACarson Beck 2 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)6–28
- Q2 10:05MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 38 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)6–21
- Q2 11:16USFNico Gramatica 28 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 0:26USFNico Gramatica 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 2:58MIAJoshua Moore 39 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:34MIAJoshua Moore 8 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1743, USF Elo 1564 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -9.6 (75% to win) — 7.9 points clear of USF's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 7–1 · Miami has won 5 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| USF | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.2 (#25) | CORE overall | +31.1 (#6) |
| +11 / -5 | offense / defense | +14 / -18 |
| 3.02 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →