South Carolina State vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

South Carolina State

0010

South Carolina1-0

▸0038

Final

Williams-Brice Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	3	0	0	7	10
SC	0	17	21	0	38

SOUTTeam statsSC

270Total yards253

208Pass128

62Rush125

13First downs16

6-163rd down3-12

1Turnovers0

34:39Possession25:21

Scoring plays

• Q4 12:32SOUTNicholas Sowell 9 Yd pass from Ryan Stubblefield (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)10–38
• Q3 2:25SCVandrevius Jacobs 35 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)3–38
• Q3 6:02SCJaron Willis 46 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick)3–31
• Q3 11:23SCOscar Adaway III 5 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)3–24
• Q2 0:00SCWilliam Joyce 49 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q2 3:07SCVicari Swain 42 Yd Punt Return (William Joyce Kick)3–14
• Q2 5:01SCVicari Swain 65 Yd Punt Return (William Joyce Kick)3–7
• Q1 1:32SOUTNico Cavanillas Alti 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

SC −42.5

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SC −42.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SC 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff146 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SC (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SC 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SC −42.5

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 10 – 38 SC

Leaders

South Carolina State

• PassWilliam Atkins IV 10/14, 118 YDS
• RushKacy Fields 5 CAR, 19 YDS
• RecJalen Johnson 5 REC, 67 YDS

South Carolina

• PassLaNorris Sellers 11/19, 128 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJawarn Howell 7 CAR, 30 YDS
• RecVandrevius Jacobs 4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SC up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SC went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WAir Force vs Robert Morris42-7WMiami (OH) vs Delaware State62-20WMaine vs Stony Brook56-28WMichigan vs Nebraska45-7WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa41-6

Fourth downs

20 calls

SOUT gave up 2.2 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 5/9 · SC 6/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of South Carolina State vs. South Carolina?

South Carolina State 10, South Carolina 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

SC

36%

Success rate

41%

0.30

EPA / pass

0.30

-0.26

EPA / rush

0.10

36%

Early-down success

43%

42%

Pass success

38%

28%

Rush success

44%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

53%

Pass rate

41%

7.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

SOUT

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

SC

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		SC
270	Total yards	253
208	Passing yards	128
62	Rushing yards	125
13	First downs	16
6-16	3rd down	3-12
0-1	4th down	2-2
18/28	Comp/Att	11/20
7.4	Yards per pass	6.4
1.8	Yards per rush	3.5
1	Turnovers	0
6-55	Penalties	7-48
34:39	Possession	25:21

Fourth downs

20 calls

SOUT

5/9 with the model

−2.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

SC

6/10 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 11:42 SOUT punt on 4th & 2 at SC 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →SC 3/10 scoring drives

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q1

SCPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 6Q1

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 37Q1

SCPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 10Q1

SOUTFG9 pl, 54 yds· own 43Q1

SCPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 10Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 46Q2

SCMISS11 pl, 53 yds· own 20Q2

SOUTTD3 pl, -6 yds· own 27Q2

SOUTTD3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

SCFG9 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q2

SCTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q3

SCPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 14Q3

SOUTTD1 pl, 3 yds· own 43Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3

SCTD5 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q3

SOUTTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

SCPUNT7 pl, 18 yds· own 35Q4

SOUTDOWNS10 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q4

SCEND6 pl, 33 yds· own 18Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 12:32SOUTNicholas Sowell 9 Yd pass from Ryan Stubblefield (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)10–38
• Q3 2:25SCVandrevius Jacobs 35 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)3–38
• Q3 6:02SCJaron Willis 46 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick)3–31
• Q3 11:23SCOscar Adaway III 5 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)3–24
• Q2 0:00SCWilliam Joyce 49 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q2 3:07SCVicari Swain 42 Yd Punt Return (William Joyce Kick)3–14
• Q2 5:01SCVicari Swain 65 Yd Punt Return (William Joyce Kick)3–7
• Q1 1:32SOUTNico Cavanillas Alti 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →