| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| WAKE | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WAKE Elo 1463, SMU Elo 1735) plus home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +8.5 (26% to win) — 3.0 points of value on SMU versus the market line of +5.5.
SMU up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
SMU 12, Wake Forest 13.
No — the model picked SMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SMU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(01:55) Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 0 yards to the SMU06 fumbled by #1 D.Claiborne at SMU06 forced by #33 Z.Barker recovered by SMU #8 M.Barnes Jr. at SMU06, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD
(13:27) Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush middle for 3 yards loss to the SMU06 fumbled by #5 D.Purdie at SMU05 forced by #1 I.Smith recovered by SMU #23 I.Nwokobia at SMU06, End Of Play
End of 2nd quarter.
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