SMU vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SMUTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 0:00WAKEConnor Calvert 50 Yd Field Goal 12–13
- Q3 2:58SMUShaadie Clayton-Johnson 6 Yd Run (Sam Keltner PAT blocked)12–10
- Q2 3:53SMUSam Keltner 35 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 10:09WAKEEni Falayi 12 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)3–10
- Q2 11:53SMUSam Keltner 36 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:59WAKEConnor Calvert 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassKevin Jennings 21/39, 171 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChris Johnson Jr. 8 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecRJ Maryland 2 REC, 51 YDS
- PassDeshawn Purdie 14/26, 183 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDemond Claiborne 23 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecChris Barnes 5 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00WAKE +97%
Connor Calvert 50 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 0:12SMU +40%
#43 W.McSparron punt 44 yards to the Wake F42 fair catch by #10 C.Barnes at Wake F42
- Q2 10:09WAKE +24%
Shotgun #2 R.Ashford pass complete short middle to #84 E.Falayi caught at SMU06, for 12 yards to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:58WAKE +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Clark rush right for 3 yards gain to the Wake F39 (#23 I.Nwokobia; #8 M.Barnes Jr.)
- Q4 5:29SMU +19%
#43 W.McSparron punt 47 yards to the Wake F34 fair catch by #10 C.Barnes at Wake F34
- Q3 2:50SMU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short left to #7 M.Mays Jr. thrown to Wake F30 broken up by #7 D.Harmon
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. Wake Forest?
SMU 12, Wake Forest 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SMU | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 301 |
| 171 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 85 |
| 8 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/39 | Comp/Att | 18/37 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 27:38 | Possession | 32:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:03 SMU punt on 4th & 1 at SMU 15. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00WAKEConnor Calvert 50 Yd Field Goal 12–13
- Q3 2:58SMUShaadie Clayton-Johnson 6 Yd Run (Sam Keltner PAT blocked)12–10
- Q2 3:53SMUSam Keltner 35 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 10:09WAKEEni Falayi 12 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)3–10
- Q2 11:53SMUSam Keltner 36 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:59WAKEConnor Calvert 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1463, SMU Elo 1735 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +8.5 (30% to win) — 3.0 points clear of SMU's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SMU | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.6 (#27) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#42) |
| +9 / -5 | offense / defense | -4 / -13 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →