Mackay StadiumConference gameClosing line: SJSU +-9.5 · NEV covered
Sat, Nov 15, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| NEV | 14 | 17 | 7 | 17 | 55 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEV Elo 1105, SJSU Elo 1391) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV +9 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
NEV up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
San José State 10, Nevada 55.
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SJSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #0 N.Jackson at Nevada34 #0 N.Jackson return 66 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:24 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU33, for 30 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:21, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #5 M.Kenion III at Nevada48 #5 M.Kenion III return 39 yards to the SJSU20 fumbled by #5 M.Kenion III at SJSU20 forced by #1 L.Smith recovered by Nevada #22 H.McDonald at SJSU13, End Of Play
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