San Diego State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsUNM
- 2OT 0:00UNMCade Keith 25 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–23
- Q3 0:51SDSUGabriel Plascencia 44 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q3 8:59UNMD.J. McKinney 54 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:59SDSUDonovan Brown 46 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:26SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–10
- Q2 13:15UNMJ. Laubstein run for 40 yds, for a TD (L. Drzewiecki KICK)0–10
- Q1 7:25UNMLuke Drzewiecki 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassJayden Denegal 14/24, 162 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLucky Sutton 22 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Brown 5 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJack Layne 14/25, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJames Laubstein 10 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeagan Johnson 3 REC, 37 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:34UNM +66%
Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNM15 (#31 J.Badie)
- Q4 0:41SDSU +47%
#93 H.Green punt 38 yards to the UNM10 fair catch by #4 D.McKinney at UNM10
- OT 0:00SDSU +35%
Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 16 yards gain to the SDSU09 (#14 J.Magee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
- 2OT 0:00UNM +32%
Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #88 C.Keith caught at SDSU21, for 25 yards to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #2 J.Layne pass attempt failed PENALTY UNM…
- Q4 3:22UNM +28%
#96 D.Hughes punt 46 yards to the SDSU37 #11 M.Welsh return for loss of 1 yard to the SDSU36 (#4 D.McKinney), out of bounds
- Q3 8:59UNM +27%
Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush right for 54 yards gain to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. New Mexico?
San Diego State 17, New Mexico 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| SDSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 355 | Total yards | 308 |
| 162 | Passing yards | 127 |
| 193 | Rushing yards | 181 |
| 20 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/24 | Comp/Att | 14/25 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-73 | Penalties | 6-53 |
| 31:28 | Possession | 28:32 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:13 UNM punt on 4th & 1 at UNM 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00UNMCade Keith 25 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–23
- Q3 0:51SDSUGabriel Plascencia 44 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q3 8:59UNMD.J. McKinney 54 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:59SDSUDonovan Brown 46 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:26SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–10
- Q2 13:15UNMJ. Laubstein run for 40 yds, for a TD (L. Drzewiecki KICK)0–10
- Q1 7:25UNMLuke Drzewiecki 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1491, SDSU Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -0.8 (53% to win) — 2.3 points clear of UNM's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 29–17 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.6 (#35) | CORE overall | +0.5 (#63) |
| -2 / -14 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 1.88 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 1.14 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →