University Stadium (NM)Conference gameClosing line: SDSU +-1.5 · UNM covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| UNM | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
Team stats
SDSUthis game · better side highlightedUNM
355
Total yards
308162
Passing yards
127193
Rushing yards
18120
First downs
16Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNM 1491
SDSU 1530
Projected spread
UNM -0.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNM
52% to win
Market spread
UNM +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UNM
2.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
UNM · market 35%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNM Elo 1491, SDSU Elo 1530) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNM -0.8 (52% to win) — 2.3 points of value on UNM versus the market line of +1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UNM (top)SDSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNM 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UNM pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge UNM.
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UNM pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UNM.
- SDSU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge SDSU.
Drive-by-drive
SDSU 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UNM 4/14 scoring drives
UNMFG12 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
UNMPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
UNM win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. New Mexico?
San Diego State 17, New Mexico 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UNM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.