Baylor
1-1·Big 12· Elo 1579
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAMF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| BAY | 14 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 42 |
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
BAY up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Samford 7, Baylor 42.
Yes — the model's pick (BAY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BAY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Gumbo Gaskins return for 5 yds to the SAM 27
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the SAM 35 for a 1ST down
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 15 yds to the SAM 48
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