Samford vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Samford
Baylor1-1
▸Final
McLane Stadium
SAMFTeam statsBAY
195Total yards468
100Pass245
95Rush223
10First downs29
4-153rd down4-13
4Turnovers2
25:54Possession34:06
- Q4 11:40BAYLouis Brown IV 11 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–42
- Q2 1:09BAYCaden Knighten 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–35
- Q2 4:22BAYBryson Washington 5 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–28
- Q2 8:52BAYKobe Prentice 12 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:07SAMFTorrey Ward 12 Yd pass from C.J. Evans (Jake Garner Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:37BAYJosh Cameron 10 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:52BAYBryson Washington 2 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
BAY −52
Against the number
SAMF covered
line BAY −52
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
BAY (top)SAMF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BAY 100%
Closing line
BAY −52
Closing total
65.0
Model line
—
Actual result
SAMF 7 – 42 BAY
Samford
- PassQuincy Crittendon 7/13, 59 YDS, 1 INT
- RushC.J. Evans 13 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecTorrey Ward 5 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Baylor
- PassSawyer Robertson 23/37, 211 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushBryson Washington 21 CAR, 135 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAshtyn Hawkins 3 REC, 42 YDS
12.5sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
149
Points / snap
0.33
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
BAY went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Samford vs. Baylor?
Samford 7, Baylor 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BAY) was correct.
SAMF
BAY
28%
Success rate
48%
-0.06
EPA / pass
0.16
-0.07
EPA / rush
0.34
28%
Early-down success
49%
30%
Pass success
48%
26%
Rush success
49%
2%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
13%
Stuffed rush rate
16%
47%
Pass rate
53%
5.2
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.1
SAMF
5.2 yards to go on 3rd down
58 scrimmage snaps
BAY
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
91 scrimmage snaps
| SAMF | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 195 | Total yards | 468 |
| 100 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 223 |
| 10 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 28/44 |
| 4.0 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-43 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 25:54 | Possession | 34:06 |
SAMF
8/9 with the model
−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
BAY
6/8 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 9:33 BAY go for it on 4th & 7 at SAMF 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.38 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSAMF 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →BAY 6/14 scoring drives
SAMFPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1
BAYTD4 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q1
SAMFPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
BAYTD5 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1
SAMFPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
BAYPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 34Q1
SAMFTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
BAYINT3 pl, -2 yds· own 31Q1
SAMFFUM4 pl, 6 yds· opp 24Q1
BAYTD14 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2
SAMFINT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2
BAYTD8 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q2
SAMFPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
BAYTD4 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q2
SAMFEND2 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2
BAYPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 43Q3
SAMFPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 6Q3
BAYPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
SAMFPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 21Q3
BAYPUNT9 pl, 42 yds· own 12Q3
SAMFINT3 pl, 3 yds· own 27Q3
BAYINT2 pl, 4 yds· opp 40Q3
SAMFPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 27Q3
BAYTD14 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q3
SAMFINT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
BAYDOWNS9 pl, 30 yds· own 33Q4
SAMFPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 37Q4
BAYEND6 pl, 39 yds· own 23Q4
- Q4 11:40BAYLouis Brown IV 11 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–42
- Q2 1:09BAYCaden Knighten 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–35
- Q2 4:22BAYBryson Washington 5 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–28
- Q2 8:52BAYKobe Prentice 12 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:07SAMFTorrey Ward 12 Yd pass from C.J. Evans (Jake Garner Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:37BAYJosh Cameron 10 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:52BAYBryson Washington 2 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →