Sam Houston vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsHAW
- Q4 1:47HAWPofele Ashlock 15 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)20–37
- Q4 3:01HAWKansei Matsuzawa 19 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q4 8:15SHSUElijah Green 21 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (RJ Lopez Kick)20–27
- Q4 13:37HAWPofele Ashlock 6 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)13–27
- Q3 3:18SHSUEmon Allen 66 Yd Interception Return (RJ Lopez Kick)13–20
- Q3 10:13HAWKansei Matsuzawa 43 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 0:00HAWKansei Matsuzawa 38 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 1:57SHSURJ Lopez 29 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 5:45HAWGiovanni Iovino 41 Yd Interception Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:29SHSURJ Lopez 28 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:46HAWLandon Sims 1 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HAW did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassMabrey Mettauer 12/18, 91 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMabrey Mettauer 17 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecElijah Green 3 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLuke Weaver 27/43, 294 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushLandon Sims 14 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecPofele Ashlock 7 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:45HAW +22%
Mabrey Mettauer pass intercepted Giovanni Iovino return for 41 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q4 3:01HAW +21%
Kansei Matsuzawa 19 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 8:15SHSU +19%
Landyn Locke pass complete to Elijah Green for 21 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)
- Q1 10:46HAW +18%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Landon Sims for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q3 3:18SHSU +17%
Luke Weaver pass intercepted Emon Allen return for 66 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)
- Q4 13:37HAW +16%
Luke Weaver pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Hawai'i?
Sam Houston 20, Hawai'i 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SHSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SHSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 238 | Total yards | 417 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 19 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 18/28 | Comp/Att | 27/43 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-95 | Penalties | 6-73 |
| 27:07 | Possession | 32:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 HAW field goal on 4th & 1 at SHSU 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:47HAWPofele Ashlock 15 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)20–37
- Q4 3:01HAWKansei Matsuzawa 19 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q4 8:15SHSUElijah Green 21 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (RJ Lopez Kick)20–27
- Q4 13:37HAWPofele Ashlock 6 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)13–27
- Q3 3:18SHSUEmon Allen 66 Yd Interception Return (RJ Lopez Kick)13–20
- Q3 10:13HAWKansei Matsuzawa 43 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q2 0:00HAWKansei Matsuzawa 38 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q2 1:57SHSURJ Lopez 29 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 5:45HAWGiovanni Iovino 41 Yd Interception Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:29SHSURJ Lopez 28 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:46HAWLandon Sims 1 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1178, SHSU Elo 1397 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW +6.4 (35% to win) — 13.4 points clear of SHSU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -30.3 (#134) | CORE overall | -6.2 (#82) |
| -15 / +15 | offense / defense | +1 / +7 |
| 1.26 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 2.93 | allowed / drive | 2.06 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →