Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexClosing line: HAW -7 · HAW covered
Sun, Sep 7, 3:59 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
| HAW | 7 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1178, SHSU Elo 1397) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW +6.4 (32% to win) — 13.4 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of -7.
HAW up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Sam Houston 20, Hawai'i 37.
No — the model picked SHSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SHSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Luke Weaver pass intercepted Emon Allen return for 66 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)
Mabrey Mettauer pass intercepted Giovanni Iovino return for 41 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
Luke Weaver pass complete to Brandon White for 27 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST down
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