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Rutgers vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 22, 5:00 PM
Ohio StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| OSU | 7 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 42 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OSU 2145
RUTG 1458
Projected spread
OSU -29.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
99% to win
Market spread
OSU -28.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
OSU · market 96%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 2145, RUTG Elo 1458) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -29.9 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
OSU (top)RUTG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OSU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
RUTG2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOSU
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.3147%
Success rate
52%1.22
Explosiveness
1.163.38
Pts / opportunity
4.8375%
Power success
73%Defense
0.31
PPA allowed / play
-0.0247%
Success rate allowed
34%1.33
Explosiveness allowed
1.0712%
Havoc rate
16%19%
Stuff rate
23%Key matchups · Pro
- RUTG pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. OSU pass defense (0.05 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- OSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. RUTG rush defense (0.26 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- RUTG rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge RUTG.
Drive-by-drive
RUTG 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →OSU 6/11 scoring drives
RUTGPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
OSUFUM11 pl, 72 yds· own 27Q1
RUTGDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1
OSUTD4 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q1
RUTGFG15 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q1
OSUPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 35Q2
RUTGPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 24Q2
OSUTD11 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q2
RUTGPUNT6 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2
OSUEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q2
OSUPUNT8 pl, -8 yds· own 9Q3
RUTGFUM5 pl, 0 yds· own 1Q3
OSUTD3 pl, 1 yds· opp 1Q3
RUTGPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
OSUTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
RUTGPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q3
OSUTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
RUTGTD8 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q4
OSUTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
RUTGDOWNS6 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q4
OSUEND2 pl, -4 yds· opp 46Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
OSU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
OSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Rutgers vs. Ohio State?
Rutgers 9, Ohio State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.