Robert Morris vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Robert Morris

03

West Virginia

▸0045

Final

Milan Puskar Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ROBE	0	3	0	0	3
WVU	7	3	14	21	45

ROBETeam statsWVU

123Total yards625

70Pass232

53Rush393

8First downs26

3-153rd down5-11

2Turnovers4

32:30Possession27:30

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:15WVUScotty Fox Jr. 59 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–45
• Q4 10:16WVUCyncir Bowers 26 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–38
• Q4 13:52WVUCam Vaughn 46 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick)3–31
• Q3 5:21WVUJahiem White 4 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–24
• Q3 11:21WVUJahiem White 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–17
• Q2 3:08ROBEJayson Jenkins 36 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q2 11:44WVUKade Hensley 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 10:15WVUNicco Marchiol 10 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

WVU −41.5

Against the number

WVU covered

line WVU −41.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ROBE aheadWVU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ROBE ahead, below = WVU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

WVU −41.5

Closing total

57.5

Model line

—

Actual result

ROBE 3 – 45 WVU

Leaders

Robert Morris

• PassZach Tanner 7/21, 70 YDS
• RushEthan Shine 8 CAR, 20 YDS
• RecThomas Lee 2 REC, 22 YDS

West Virginia

• PassNicco Marchiol 17/20, 224 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJahiem White 18 CAR, 93 YDS, 2 TD
• RecCam Vaughn 7 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

139

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WVU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

WVU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3WJames Madison vs Bucknell38-3WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7

Fourth downs

20 calls

WVU gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.ROBE 10/11 · WVU 6/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Robert Morris vs. West Virginia?

Robert Morris 3, West Virginia 45.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ROBE

WVU

17%

Success rate

56%

-0.13

EPA / pass

0.20

-0.43

EPA / rush

0.51

14%

Early-down success

59%

23%

Pass success

54%

12%

Rush success

57%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

44%

Pass rate

33%

7.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

ROBE

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

WVU

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ROBE		WVU
123	Total yards	625
70	Passing yards	232
53	Rushing yards	393
8	First downs	26
3-15	3rd down	5-11
0-0	4th down	1-2
7/22	Comp/Att	18/23
3.2	Yards per pass	10.1
1.4	Yards per rush	7.4
2	Turnovers	4
4-24	Penalties	9-69
32:30	Possession	27:30

Fourth downs

20 calls

ROBE

10/11 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

WVU

6/7 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 3:46 WVU punt on 4th & 2 at WVU 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.21 points.

Every call, priced (20)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ROBE 1/15 scoring drives← own end zone →WVU 7/15 scoring drives

ROBEPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 38Q1

WVUTD10 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1

ROBEPUNT9 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q1

WVUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 15Q1

ROBEPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 35Q1

WVUFG13 pl, 75 yds· own 16Q1

ROBEFUM5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q2

WVUFUM4 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q2

ROBEPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q2

WVUFUM2 pl, 18 yds· own 18Q2

ROBEFG5 pl, 18 yds· opp 36Q2

WVUFUM1 pl, 11 yds· own 40Q2

ROBEPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 49Q2

WVUPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 41Q2

ROBEEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q2

WVUTD9 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

ROBEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 18Q3

WVUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 49Q3

ROBEFUM4 pl, 12 yds· own 12Q3

WVUTD3 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q3

ROBEPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q3

WVUTD10 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q3

ROBEPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 10Q4

WVUTD4 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q4

ROBEPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q4

WVUDOWNS6 pl, 26 yds· own 48Q4

ROBEPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 26Q4

WVUTD3 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4

ROBEPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4

WVUFUM3 pl, 41 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:15WVUScotty Fox Jr. 59 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–45
• Q4 10:16WVUCyncir Bowers 26 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–38
• Q4 13:52WVUCam Vaughn 46 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick)3–31
• Q3 5:21WVUJahiem White 4 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–24
• Q3 11:21WVUJahiem White 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–17
• Q2 3:08ROBEJayson Jenkins 36 Yd Field Goal 3–10
• Q2 11:44WVUKade Hensley 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 10:15WVUNicco Marchiol 10 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →