Rice
3-1·American Athletic· Elo 1288
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICE | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| NAVY | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NAVY Elo 1550, RICE Elo 1288) plus home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -12.9 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = RICE ahead, below = NAVY ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
NAVY up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Rice 13, Navy 21.
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Alex Tecza run for 65 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST down
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Plae Wyatt return for 7 yds to the RICE 35
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 34 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST down
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