Prairie View A&M vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Prairie View A&M

0017

Rice1-1

▸0038

Final

Rice Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
PRAI	7	0	3	7	17
RICE	7	17	7	7	38

PRAITeam statsRICE

251Total yards461

151Pass114

100Rush347

18First downs28

7-153rd down6-14

0Turnovers0

23:38Possession36:22

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:41PRAITevin Carter 6 Yd Run (Aiden Webb Kick)17–38
• Q4 5:40RICETyson Thompson 22 Yd pass from Drew Devillier (Chase Allen Kick)10–38
• Q3 2:41PRAIAiden Webb 28 Yd Field Goal 10–31
• Q3 12:19RICELandon Ransom-Goelz 34 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:50RICEEnock Gota 49 Yd Field Goal 7–24
• Q2 4:56RICEQuinton Jackson 1 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–21
• Q2 11:47RICEAaron Turner 52 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:28RICEChase Jenkins 3 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–7
• Q1 8:34PRAITravon Jones 12 Yd pass from Tevin Carter (Aiden Webb Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

RICE −29

Against the number

PRAI covered

line RICE −29

What the numbers say

• PRAI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and RICE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 6.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

RICE 100%50%PRAI 100%

Kickoff160 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

RICE (top)PRAI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: RICE 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

RICE −29

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

PRAI 17 – 38 RICE

Leaders

Prairie View A&M

• PassTevin Carter 12/27, 131 YDS, 1 TD
• RushTevin Carter 15 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJyziah Rockwell 6 REC, 92 YDS

Rice

• PassChase Jenkins 10/16, 87 YDS, 1 TD
• RushChase Jenkins 21 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
• RecLandon Ransom-Goelz 3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.7sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

140

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

RICE up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

RICE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3WJames Madison vs Bucknell38-3WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7

Fourth downs

15 calls

RICE gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.PRAI 4/7 · RICE 5/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Prairie View A&M vs. Rice?

Prairie View A&M 17, Rice 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (RICE) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

PRAI

RICE

35%

Success rate

55%

0.12

EPA / pass

0.03

-0.05

EPA / rush

0.40

30%

Early-down success

56%

36%

Pass success

40%

35%

Rush success

60%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

52%

Pass rate

25%

9.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

PRAI

9.5 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

RICE

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

PRAI		RICE
251	Total yards	461
151	Passing yards	114
100	Rushing yards	347
18	First downs	28
7-15	3rd down	6-14
0-1	4th down	3-4
13/28	Comp/Att	12/19
5.4	Yards per pass	6.0
3.1	Yards per rush	5.8
0	Turnovers	0
7-54	Penalties	6-58
23:38	Possession	36:22

Fourth downs

15 calls

PRAI

4/7 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

RICE

5/8 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 13:36 RICE go for it on 4th & 5 at RICE 37. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.40 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

PRAI 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →RICE 6/10 scoring drives

PRAIPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q1

RICEPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 20Q1

PRAITD6 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1

RICETD12 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

PRAIPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

RICETD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1

PRAIPUNT3 pl, -16 yds· own 25Q2

RICETD9 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2

PRAIPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

RICEFG11 pl, 48 yds· own 21Q2

PRAIEND4 pl, 14 yds· own 17Q2

RICETD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

PRAIPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

RICEDOWNS8 pl, 26 yds· own 37Q3

PRAIFG7 pl, 52 yds· own 37Q3

RICEMISS13 pl, 37 yds· own 27Q3

PRAIDOWNS10 pl, 25 yds· own 36Q4

RICETD8 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4

PRAITD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

RICEEND5 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:41PRAITevin Carter 6 Yd Run (Aiden Webb Kick)17–38
• Q4 5:40RICETyson Thompson 22 Yd pass from Drew Devillier (Chase Allen Kick)10–38
• Q3 2:41PRAIAiden Webb 28 Yd Field Goal 10–31
• Q3 12:19RICELandon Ransom-Goelz 34 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:50RICEEnock Gota 49 Yd Field Goal 7–24
• Q2 4:56RICEQuinton Jackson 1 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–21
• Q2 11:47RICEAaron Turner 52 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:28RICEChase Jenkins 3 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)7–7
• Q1 8:34PRAITravon Jones 12 Yd pass from Tevin Carter (Aiden Webb Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →