Sat, Sep 13, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
| WVU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WVU Elo 1469, PITT Elo 1518) plus home-field advantage. That projects WVU -0.4 (51% to win) — 7.4 points of value on WVU versus the market line of +7.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Pittsburgh 24, West Virginia 31.
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WVU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Eli Holstein pass complete to Bryce Yates for 68 yds to the WVU 6 for a 1ST down
Eli Holstein pass intercepted Darrian Lewis return for 10 yds to the WVU 10
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 67 yds to the WVU 6 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →