Milan Puskar StadiumClosing line: PITT +-7 · WVU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
| WVU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
Team stats
PITTthis game · better side highlightedWVU
350
Total yards
434303
Passing yards
26047
Rushing yards
17415
First downs
28Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WVU 1469
PITT 1518
Projected spread
WVU -0.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
WVU
51% to win
Market spread
WVU +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
WVU
7.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
51%
WVU · market 31%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WVU Elo 1469, PITT Elo 1518) plus home-field advantage. That projects WVU -0.4 (51% to win) — 7.4 points of value on WVU versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WVU (top)PITT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WVU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- WVU rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge WVU.
- PITT rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. WVU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge PITT.
- PITT pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. WVU pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge PITT.
Drive-by-drive
PITT 5/15 scoring drives← own end zone →WVU 5/16 scoring drives
PITTPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 19Q1
WVUMISS5 pl, 22 yds· opp 48Q1
PITTPUNT8 pl, 25 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
WVU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia?
Pittsburgh 24, West Virginia 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WVU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.