Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsWVU
- OT 0:00WVUTye Edwards 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)24–31
- Q4 0:11WVUGrayson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:03WVUKade Hensley 21 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q4 9:23PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 14 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)24–14
- Q4 14:56PITTTrey Butkowski 36 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q3 3:30PITTTrey Butkowski 46 Yd Field Goal 14–14
- Q3 6:16PITTEli Holstein 1 Yd Run (Eli Holstein Pass to Cataurus Hicks for Two-Point Conversion)11–14
- Q3 8:27WVUTye Edwards 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–14
- Q2 1:37PITTTrey Butkowski 23 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 11:51WVUTye Edwards 12 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassEli Holstein 22/37, 303 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJuelz Goff 8 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecRaphael Williams Jr. 6 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNicco Marchiol 19/25, 192 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTye Edwards 25 CAR, 141 YDS, 3 TD
- RecRodney Gallagher III 7 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:11WVU +96%
Grayson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick)
- Q4 0:00PITT +96%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 11
- OT 0:00WVU +90%
Tye Edwards 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)
- Q3 6:16PITT +27%
Eli Holstein 1 Yd Run (Eli Holstein Pass to Cataurus Hicks for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 9:23PITT +22%
Raphael Williams Jr. 14 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)
- Q2 11:51WVU +20%
Tye Edwards run for 12 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia?
Pittsburgh 24, West Virginia 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
| PITT | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 349 | Total yards | 434 |
| 303 | Passing yards | 260 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 15 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 22/38 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 14-118 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 28:59 | Possession | 31:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:29 PITT punt on 4th & 1 at PITT 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00WVUTye Edwards 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)24–31
- Q4 0:11WVUGrayson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Kade Hensley Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:03WVUKade Hensley 21 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q4 9:23PITTRaphael Williams Jr. 14 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Trey Butkowski Kick)24–14
- Q4 14:56PITTTrey Butkowski 36 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q3 3:30PITTTrey Butkowski 46 Yd Field Goal 14–14
- Q3 6:16PITTEli Holstein 1 Yd Run (Eli Holstein Pass to Cataurus Hicks for Two-Point Conversion)11–14
- Q3 8:27WVUTye Edwards 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)3–14
- Q2 1:37PITTTrey Butkowski 23 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 11:51WVUTye Edwards 12 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1469, PITT Elo 1518 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU -0.4 (52% to win) — 7.4 points clear of WVU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPittsburgh leads 61–37–3 · 37% have been one-possession games
| PITT | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.8 (#23) | CORE overall | -10.6 (#98) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | -11 / -1 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 1.51 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →