Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsSYR
- Q4 1:57PITTJuelz Goff 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)30–13
- Q4 6:19SYREmanuel Ross 12 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–13
- Q4 10:48PITTTrey Butkowski 32 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q3 11:20PITTTrey Butkowski 42 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:02PITTKenny Johnson 66 Yd Punt Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:00PITTTrey Butkowski 31 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 2:08SYRDarrell Gill Jr. 11 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Tripp Woody Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:49PITTMason Heintschel 36 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMason Heintschel 13/24, 140 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJa'Kyrian Turner 15 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecKenny Johnson 4 REC, 56 YDS
- PassRickie Collins 15/31, 126 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushRickie Collins 9 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecJohntay Cook II 6 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:08SYR +17%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)
- Q1 11:49PITT +15%
Mason Heintschel run for 36 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
- Q2 0:02PITT +14%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 43 yds, Kenny Johnson returns for 66 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
- Q3 11:20PITT +8%
Trey Butkowski 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 11:00PITT +8%
Trey Butkowski 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse?
Pittsburgh 30, Syracuse 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
| PITT | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 212 |
| 140 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 76 |
| 16 | First downs | 13 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 17/34 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 13-109 | Penalties | 12-107 |
| 29:58 | Possession | 30:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:35 SYR go for it on 4th & 8 at SYR 37. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.76 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57PITTJuelz Goff 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)30–13
- Q4 6:19SYREmanuel Ross 12 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–13
- Q4 10:48PITTTrey Butkowski 32 Yd Field Goal 23–7
- Q3 11:20PITTTrey Butkowski 42 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 0:02PITTKenny Johnson 66 Yd Punt Return (Trey Butkowski Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:00PITTTrey Butkowski 31 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 2:08SYRDarrell Gill Jr. 11 Yd pass from Rickie Collins (Tripp Woody Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:49PITTMason Heintschel 36 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1422, PITT Elo 1625 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR +5.7 (36% to win) — 3.3 points clear of SYR's market line of +9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPittsburgh leads 45–33–3 · Pittsburgh has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| PITT | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.8 (#23) | CORE overall | -20.9 (#127) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | -14 / +7 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 1.12 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.89 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →