| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 7 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| SYR | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SYR Elo 1422, PITT Elo 1625) plus home-field advantage. That projects SYR +5.7 (34% to win) — 3.3 points of value on SYR versus the market line of +9.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = PITT ahead, below = SYR ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
PITT up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Pittsburgh 30, Syracuse 13.
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Mason Heintschel run for 36 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
Rickie Collins pass complete to Johntay Cook for 26 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST down
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 24 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST down
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