| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 7 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 37 |
| UCLA | 10 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCLA Elo 1331, PSU Elo 2070) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +27.2 (2% to win) — 2.7 points of value on PSU versus the market line of +24.5.
UCLA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Penn State 37, UCLA 42.
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had PSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Liam Clifford 6 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Barker Kick)
Nico Iamaleava run for 52 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST down
Drew Allar run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 12
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