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Penn State vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 29, 8:30 PM
SHI StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 14 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 40 |
| RUTG | 14 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 36 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
RUTG 1445
PSU 1975
Projected spread
RUTG +18.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
92% to win
Market spread
RUTG +14
sportsbook line
Model edge
PSU
4.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
8%
RUTG · market 18%
Our model blends Elo ratings (RUTG Elo 1445, PSU Elo 1975) plus home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +18.8 (8% to win) — 4.8 points of value on PSU versus the market line of +14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
RUTG (top)PSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: RUTG 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
PSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedRUTG
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.2146%
Success rate
47%1.20
Explosiveness
1.224.32
Pts / opportunity
3.3876%
Power success
75%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.3141%
Success rate allowed
47%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.3316%
Havoc rate
12%18%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- RUTG pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. RUTG pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge RUTG.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. RUTG rush defense (0.26 allowed) — edge RUTG.
Drive-by-drive
PSU 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →RUTG 6/10 scoring drives
RUTGTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
PSUTD4 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1
RUTGDOWNS7 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q1
PSUTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
RUTGTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
PSUTD4 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q1
RUTGPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2
PSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 40Q2
RUTGPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 16Q2
PSUPUNT8 pl, 32 yds· own 14Q2
RUTGTD11 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q2
PSUFG5 pl, 56 yds· own 30Q2
PSUEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q2
PSUFG10 pl, 50 yds· own 39Q3
RUTGTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
PSUTD6 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3
RUTGTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
PSUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 19Q4
RUTGTD7 pl, 35 yds· own 26Q4
RUTGDOWNS7 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q4
PSUEND9 pl, 64 yds· own 28Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
PSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
PSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Rutgers?
Penn State 40, Rutgers 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had PSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.