Penn State vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 7:27PSUAmare Campbell 61 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Barker Kick)40–36
- Q4 15:00RUTGAntwan Raymond 46 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Athan Kaliakmanis Pass to KJ Duff for Two-Point Conversion)33–36
- Q3 0:54PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)33–28
- Q3 3:51RUTGKJ Duff 13 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)27–28
- Q3 8:53PSURyan Barker 29 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q2 0:01PSURyan Barker 31 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 0:27RUTGDT Sheffield 21 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)21–21
- Q2 14:55PSUKaytron Allen 15 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)21–14
- Q1 1:30RUTGAthan Kaliakmanis 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:11PSUNicholas Singleton 11 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:46PSUAndrew Rappleyea 53 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:13RUTGAntwan Raymond 19 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassEthan Grunkemeyer 17/21, 209 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKaytron Allen 22 CAR, 226 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAndrew Rappleyea 4 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 16/22, 338 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAntwan Raymond 29 CAR, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKJ Duff 5 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:27PSU +43%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis rush middle for 7 yards loss to the PSU39 fumbled by #16 A.Kaliakmanis at PSU39 recovered by PSU #24 A.Campbell at PSU39 #24 A.Camp…
- Q4 15:00RUTG +33%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis pass complete deep left to #3 A.Raymond caught at PSU26, for 46 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #8 K.Duff pass attempt Succe…
- Q3 3:51RUTG +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Kaliakmanis pass complete short left to #8 K.Duff caught at PSU01, for 13 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 0:54PSU +17%
#10 N.Singleton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the RU00 TOUCHDOWN #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush attempt failed
- Q4 11:06RUTG +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Raymond rush middle for 1 yard gain to the RU27 (#7 Z.Tracy)
- Q4 2:41PSU +15%
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Howard thrown to PSU18 QB hurried by #94 B.Weaver PENALTY RU Holding (#10 J.Henderson) 10 yards from PSU12…
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Rutgers?
Penn State 40, Rutgers 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| PSU | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 509 | Total yards | 533 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 338 |
| 300 | Rushing yards | 195 |
| 23 | First downs | 27 |
| 1-8 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 17/21 | Comp/Att | 16/22 |
| 10.0 | Yards per pass | 15.4 |
| 9.1 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-54 | Penalties | 6-42 |
| 27:36 | Possession | 32:24 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:05 RUTG go for it on 4th & 8 at PSU 22. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:27PSUAmare Campbell 61 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Barker Kick)40–36
- Q4 15:00RUTGAntwan Raymond 46 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Athan Kaliakmanis Pass to KJ Duff for Two-Point Conversion)33–36
- Q3 0:54PSUNicholas Singleton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)33–28
- Q3 3:51RUTGKJ Duff 13 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)27–28
- Q3 8:53PSURyan Barker 29 Yd Field Goal 27–21
- Q2 0:01PSURyan Barker 31 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 0:27RUTGDT Sheffield 21 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)21–21
- Q2 14:55PSUKaytron Allen 15 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)21–14
- Q1 1:30RUTGAthan Kaliakmanis 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:11PSUNicholas Singleton 11 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:46PSUAndrew Rappleyea 53 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ryan Barker Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:13RUTGAntwan Raymond 19 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1445, PSU Elo 1975 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +18.8 (12% to win) — 4.8 points clear of PSU's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPenn State leads 33–2 · Penn State has won 18 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| PSU | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.0 (#32) | CORE overall | -4.9 (#79) |
| +8 / -5 | offense / defense | +10 / +14 |
| 2.96 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 2.25 | allowed / drive | 3.60 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →