Oregon
13-1·Big Ten· Elo 2161
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 7 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 22 |
| IU | 14 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 56 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 2264, ORE Elo 2161) on a neutral field. That projects IU -4.1 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ORE ahead, below = IU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
IU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon 22, Indiana 56.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
D'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)
D'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)
(08:51) Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush right for 71 yards gain to the Ind04 (#1 A.Ferrell; #21 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWN
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →