Oregon vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsIU
- Q4 0:22ORERoger Saleapaga 1 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)22–56
- Q4 5:13IUKaelon Black 23 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)15–56
- Q4 11:36IUElijah Sarratt 3 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)15–49
- Q3 7:50OREJay Harris 2 Yd Run (Dante Moore Pass to Jamari Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)15–42
- Q3 8:52IUE.J. Williams Jr. 13 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:59IUElijah Sarratt 2 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–35
- Q2 3:13IUCharlie Becker 36 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–28
- Q2 8:17IUKaelon Black 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:40IUOmar Cooper Jr. 8 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:11OREJamari Johnson 19 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49IUD'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
- Q1 14:49IUD'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ORE ahead, below = IU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassDante Moore 24/39, 285 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDierre Hill Jr. 5 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecJamari Johnson 4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- PassFernando Mendoza 17/20, 177 YDS, 5 TD
- RushKaelon Black 12 CAR, 63 YDS, 2 TD
- RecElijah Sarratt 7 REC, 75 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Indiana?
Oregon 22, Indiana 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| ORE | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 362 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 93 | Rushing yards | 185 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 11-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 17/20 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-43 | Penalties | 5-23 |
| 28:47 | Possession | 31:13 |
- Q4 0:22ORERoger Saleapaga 1 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)22–56
- Q4 5:13IUKaelon Black 23 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)15–56
- Q4 11:36IUElijah Sarratt 3 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)15–49
- Q3 7:50OREJay Harris 2 Yd Run (Dante Moore Pass to Jamari Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)15–42
- Q3 8:52IUE.J. Williams Jr. 13 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–42
- Q2 0:59IUElijah Sarratt 2 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–35
- Q2 3:13IUCharlie Becker 36 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–28
- Q2 8:17IUKaelon Black 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:40IUOmar Cooper Jr. 8 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:11OREJamari Johnson 19 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49IUD'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
- Q1 14:49IUD'Angelo Ponds 25 Yd Interception Return (Nico Radicic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 2264, ORE Elo 2161 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects IU -4.1 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#118 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #20 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| ORE | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| +34.6 (#4) | CORE overall | +35.3 (#3) |
| +19 / -16 | offense / defense | +19 / -17 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 3.69 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 0.94 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →