Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsMSST
- Q4 9:50MISSDeuce Alexander 88 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)38–19
- Q4 10:40MSSTKamario Taylor 35 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–19
- Q4 13:46MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 23 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)31–13
- Q3 6:43MISSLucas Carneiro 43 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 10:01MSSTKyle Ferrie 36 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:12MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 10 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:45MSSTKyle Ferrie 40 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 5:22MISSHarrison Wallace III 24 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:50MSSTKamario Taylor 22 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:05MISSKewan Lacy 31 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MSST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 23/34, 359 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKewan Lacy 27 CAR, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeuce Alexander 2 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKamario Taylor 15/31, 178 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKamario Taylor 20 CAR, 173 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrenen Thompson 6 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:12MISS +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete short left to #1 D.Stribling caught at MSU00, for 10 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:45MSST +7%
#80 K.Ferrie field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State?
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| MISS | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 545 | Total yards | 440 |
| 359 | Passing yards | 178 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 262 |
| 29 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 23/34 | Comp/Att | 15/31 |
| 10.6 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 6-67 |
| 31:23 | Possession | 28:37 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:07 MISS punt on 4th & 8 at MSST 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.46 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:50MISSDeuce Alexander 88 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)38–19
- Q4 10:40MSSTKamario Taylor 35 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–19
- Q4 13:46MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 23 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)31–13
- Q3 6:43MISSLucas Carneiro 43 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 10:01MSSTKyle Ferrie 36 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:12MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 10 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:45MSSTKyle Ferrie 40 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 5:22MISSHarrison Wallace III 24 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:50MSSTKamario Taylor 22 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:05MISSKewan Lacy 31 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1492, MISS Elo 1959 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +16.3 (15% to win) — 8.8 points clear of MISS's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOle Miss leads 67–47–5 · Ole Miss has won 3 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| MISS | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.4 (#16) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#64) |
| +16 / -4 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 3.33 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →