Davis Wade StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 14 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 38 |
| MSST | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSST 1492
MISS 1959
Projected spread
MSST +16.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
89% to win
Market spread
MSST +7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MISS
8.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
11%
MSST · market 29%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSST Elo 1492, MISS Elo 1959) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSST +16.3 (11% to win) — 8.8 points of value on MISS versus the market line of +7.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSST (top)MISS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MISS pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge MSST.
Drive-by-drive
MISS 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MSST 4/12 scoring drives
MISSTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MSSTTD10 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q1
MISSTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MISS up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
MISS went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State?
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.