Fri, Nov 28, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 14 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 38 |
| MSST | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSST Elo 1492, MISS Elo 1959) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSST +16.3 (11% to win) — 8.8 points of value on MISS versus the market line of +7.5.
MISS up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Chambliss pass complete deep left to #11 D.Alexander caught at OM 37, for 88 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush middle for 35 yards gain to the OM 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:40, 1ST DOWN #1 K.Taylor pass attempt failed
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass intercepted by #1 P.Umanmielen at OM 38 broken up by #52 W.Echoles #1 P.Umanmielen return 0 yards to the OM 38 (#24 F.Bothwell)
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