| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| ALA | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ALA Elo 1977, OU Elo 1794) plus home-field advantage. That projects ALA -9.7 (76% to win) — 3.2 points of value on ALA versus the market line of -6.5.
ALA up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21.
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ALA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(02:18) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass intercepted by #23 E.Bowen at OU 13 QB hurried by #10 K.Lewis #23 E.Bowen return 87 yards to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:03 #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #49 B.Anderson)
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer pass complete short right to #5 I.Sategna III caught at ALA40, for 21 yards to the ALA36 (#5 D.Lee Jr.), 1ST DOWN
(06:18) Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at OU 20, for 25 yards to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #31 C.Talty kick attempt good (H: #38 B.Doud, LS: #45 D.Bird)
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