Oklahoma vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsALA
- Q4 13:41OUTate Sandell 24 Yd Field Goal 23–21
- Q3 7:27ALADaniel Hill 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)20–21
- Q3 10:38OUTate Sandell 52 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 6:13ALAJosh Cuevas 25 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:49OUJohn Mateer 20 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:36ALADaniel Hill 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:03OUEli Bowen 87 Yd Interception Return (Tate Sandell Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:33OUTate Sandell 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassJohn Mateer 15/23, 138 YDS
- RushXavier Robinson 10 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecJer'Michael Carter 3 REC, 36 YDS
- PassTy Simpson 28/42, 326 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDaniel Hill 15 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJosh Cuevas 6 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:46OU +41%
Kneel down by #10 J.Mateer at ALA49 for loss of 1 yard
- Q3 7:27ALA +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:13ALA +22%
Shotgun #15 T.Simpson pass complete short right to #80 J.Cuevas caught at OU 20, for 25 yards to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 8:49OU +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Mateer rush middle for 20 yards gain to the ALA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:52OU +21%
PENALTY OU False Start (#55 E.Pierre-Louis) 5 yards from ALA33 to ALA38. NO PLAY
- Q2 10:36ALA +21%
Shotgun #4 D.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. Alabama?
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OU | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 212 | Total yards | 406 |
| 138 | Passing yards | 326 |
| 74 | Rushing yards | 80 |
| 12 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 28/42 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-37 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 25:32 | Possession | 34:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:09 OU punt on 4th & 6 at ALA 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:41OUTate Sandell 24 Yd Field Goal 23–21
- Q3 7:27ALADaniel Hill 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)20–21
- Q3 10:38OUTate Sandell 52 Yd Field Goal 20–14
- Q2 6:13ALAJosh Cuevas 25 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:49OUJohn Mateer 20 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:36ALADaniel Hill 1 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)10–7
- Q1 2:03OUEli Bowen 87 Yd Interception Return (Tate Sandell Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:33OUTate Sandell 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1977, OU Elo 1794 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -9.7 (75% to win) — 3.2 points clear of ALA's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#105 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #67 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #42 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Oklahoma leads 5–3–1 · 33% have been one-possession games
| OU | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.8 (#21) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#14) |
| -2 / -19 | offense / defense | +7 / -13 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 1.22 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →