| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| BALL | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BALL Elo 1095, OHIO Elo 1604) plus home-field advantage. That projects BALL +18 (9% to win) — 4.0 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of +14.
OHIO up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio 14, Ball State 20.
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had OHIO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Qian Magwood 43 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Kiael Kelly Pass to Donovan Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 23 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the BALL 7
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