Notre Dame vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NDTeam statsMIA
- Q4 1:04MIACarter Davis 47 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 3:21NDCJ Carr 7 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:32NDNoah Burnette 39 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q4 9:42MIACarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q4 14:55NDJordan Faison 1 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)14–21
- Q3 7:23MIACharMar Brown 5 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:12MIACJ Daniels 20 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:21NDMicah Gilbert 7 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:03MIAMalachi Toney 28 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCJ Carr 19/30, 221 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJadarian Price 6 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecEli Raridon 5 REC, 97 YDS
- PassCarson Beck 20/30, 205 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCharMar Brown 15 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalachi Toney 6 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:21ND +60%
CJ Carr run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
- Q4 1:04MIA +36%
Carter Davis 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 3:15MIA +31%
Carson Beck pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the MIA 34
- Q4 14:55ND +27%
Jordan Faison 1 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)
- Q4 0:59ND +26%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli Raridon
- Q3 7:23MIA +25%
CharMar Brown run for 5 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Miami?
Notre Dame 24, Miami 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ND, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 314 | Total yards | 339 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 205 |
| 93 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 20/30 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-15 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 26:03 | Possession | 33:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:11 MIA punt on 4th & 1 at MIA 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:04MIACarter Davis 47 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 3:21NDCJ Carr 7 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:32NDNoah Burnette 39 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q4 9:42MIACarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q4 14:55NDJordan Faison 1 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)14–21
- Q3 7:23MIACharMar Brown 5 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:12MIACJ Daniels 20 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:21NDMicah Gilbert 7 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:03MIAMalachi Toney 28 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1736, ND Elo 2173 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA +15.1 (17% to win) — 12.6 points clear of ND's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 18–9–1 · Miami has won 2 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| ND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +38.3 (#2) | CORE overall | +31.1 (#6) |
| +20 / -18 | offense / defense | +14 / -18 |
| 3.84 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 1.28 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →