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Notre Dame vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Aug 31, 11:30 PM
Hard Rock Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 0 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| MIA | 0 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MIA 1736
ND 2173
Projected spread
MIA +15.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
87% to win
Market spread
MIA +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ND
12.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
13%
MIA · market 44%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIA Elo 1736, ND Elo 2173) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIA +15.1 (13% to win) — 12.6 points of value on ND versus the market line of +2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MIA (top)ND (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MIA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ND2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMIA
Offense
0.36
PPA / play
0.2249%
Success rate
46%1.44
Explosiveness
1.164.79
Pts / opportunity
4.3662%
Power success
83%Defense
0.04
PPA allowed / play
0.0536%
Success rate allowed
37%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.2718%
Havoc rate
19%18%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge MIA.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. MIA rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge ND.
Drive-by-drive
ND 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MIA 5/11 scoring drives
NDPUNT7 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q1
MIAPUNT7 pl, 37 yds· own 5Q1
NDFUM1 pl, 2 yds· own 22Q1
MIADOWNS8 pl, 4 yds· opp 24Q1
NDPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q1
MIATD8 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
NDPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 15Q2
MIAPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 34Q2
NDTD11 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2
MIATD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
NDEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
MIATD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
NDPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
MIAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 14Q3
NDTD11 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3
MIAPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4
NDINT2 pl, 8 yds· own 35Q4
MIAFG4 pl, 8 yds· opp 28Q4
NDFG10 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q4
MIAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 32Q4
NDTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
MIAFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q4
NDEND4 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MIA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
MIA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Miami?
Notre Dame 24, Miami 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ND, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ND pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.